相关论文: Tracking of Historical Volatility

We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) procedures are theoretically appealing and widely used for statistical inference. While there are extensive references on QML estimation in batch settings, it has attracted little attention in streaming…

In this paper, we develop {finite-time horizon} causal filters using the nonanticipative rate distortion theory. We apply the {developed} theory to {design optimal filters for} time-varying multidimensional Gauss-Markov processes, subject…

Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…

This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…

In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated…

There have been many works that focus on the sampling set design for a static graph signal, but few for time-varying graph signals (GS). In this paper, we concentrate on how to select vertices to sample and how to allocate the sampling…

This paper presents an adaptive Kalman filter for a linear dynamic system perturbed by an additive disturbance. The objective is to estimate both of the state and the unknown disturbance concurrently, while learning the disturbance as a…

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting…

Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…

In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…

This paper develops online algorithms to track solutions of time-varying constrained optimization problems. Particularly, resembling workhorse Kalman filtering-based approaches for dynamical systems, the proposed methods involve…

The Garman-Klass unbiased estimator of the variance per unit time of a zero-drift Brownian Motion B, based on the usual financial data that reports for time windows of equal length the open (OPEN), minimum (MIN), maximum (MAX) and close…

This paper develops the first closed-form optimal portfolio allocation formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a GARCH(1,1) process. We consider an investor with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility who wants to maximize…

We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…

We consider stochastic volatility models using piecewise constant parameters. We suggest a hybrid optimization algorithm for fitting the models to a volatility surface and provide some numerical results. Finally, we provide an outlook on…

We develop a non-parametric, semimartingale optimal transport, calibration methodology for local volatility models with stochastic interest rate. The method finds a fully calibrated model which is the closest, in a way that can be defined…

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…

This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…

Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning…