相关论文: Tracking of Historical Volatility

Graph-based techniques emerged as a choice to deal with the dimensionality issues in modeling multivariate time series. However, there is yet no complete understanding of how the underlying structure could be exploited to ease this task.…

The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…

This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-It\^o model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility…

We propose a novel method to quantify the clustering behavior in a complex time series and apply it to a high-frequency data of the financial markets. We find that regardless of used data sets, all data exhibits the volatility clustering…

In this paper, we consider the portfolio optimization problem in a financial market where the underlying stochastic volatility model is driven by n-dimensional Brownian motions. At first, we derive a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation…

Several particle algorithms admit a Feynman-Kac representation such that the potential function may be expressed as a recursive function which depends on the complete state trajectory. An important example is the mixture Kalman filter, but…

This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…

In this paper, we introduce flexible observation-driven $\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series models constructed from mixtures of negative and non-negative components. Compared to models based on the standard Skellam distribution or on a…

This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…

We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…

Optimization algorithms have a rich and fundamental relationship with ordinary differential equations given by its continuous-time limit. When the cost function varies with time -- typically in response to a dynamically changing environment…

Patient-specific modeling of cardiovascular flows with high-fidelity is challenging due to its dependence on accurately estimated velocity boundary profiles, which are essential for precise simulations and directly influence wall shear…

Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…

A sequential estimator based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation of fluid flows is presented in this research work. The main feature of this estimator is that the Kalman filter update, which relies on the determination of…

We propose a pairs trading model that incorporates a time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance type. Our approach is based on stochastic control techniques; given a fixed time horizon and a portfolio of two…

In this paper, a position and velocity estimation method for robotic manipulators which are affected by constant bounded disturbances is considered. The tracking control problem is formulated as a disturbance rejection problem, with all the…

We propose an online algorithm for tracking a multidimensional time-varying parameter of a time series, which is also allowed to be a predictable process with respect to the underlying time series. The algorithm is driven by a gain…

Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…

A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…

This note outlines a method for clustering time series based on a statistical model in which volatility shifts at unobserved change-points. The model accommodates some classical stylized features of returns and its relation to GARCH is…