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We study a new technique for the asymptotic analysis of heavy-tailed systems conditioned on large deviations events. We illustrate our approach in the context of ruin events of multidimensional regularly varying random walks. Our approach…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-03-10 Jose Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

We discuss various limits of a simple random exchange model that can be used for the distribution of wealth. We start from a discrete state space - discrete time version of this model and, under suitable scaling, we show its functional…

概率论 · 数学 2024-03-26 Bertram Düring , Nicos Georgiou , Sara Merino-Aceituno , Enrico Scalas

A general formalism is developed to construct a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are therefore internal to the system and not externally specified. For…

统计力学 · 物理学 2014-09-15 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

Consider a continuous time Markov chain with rates Q in the state space \Lambda\cup\{0\} with 0 as an absorbing state. In the associated Fleming-Viot process N particles evolve independently in \Lambda with rates Q until one of them…

概率论 · 数学 2009-05-12 Amine Asselah , Pablo A. Ferrari , Pablo Groisman

The master equation and, more generally, Markov processes are routinely used as models for stochastic processes. They are often justified on the basis of randomization and coarse-graining assumptions. Here instead, we derive n-th order…

统计力学 · 物理学 2012-09-27 Julian Lee , Steve Pressé

The first aim of the present note is to quantify the speed of convergence of a conditioned process toward its Q-process under suitable assumptions on the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. Conversely, we prove that, if a…

概率论 · 数学 2017-04-10 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

We present a principled approach for estimating the matrix of microscopic rates among states of a Markov process, given only its stationary state population distribution and a single average global kinetic observable. We adapt Maximum…

统计力学 · 物理学 2014-02-17 Purushottam D. Dixit , Ken A. Dill

In this paper we define the notion of an open Markov process. An open Markov process is a generalization of an ordinary Markov process in which populations are allowed to flow in and out of the system at certain boundary states. We show…

统计力学 · 物理学 2016-11-02 Blake S. Pollard

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-28 Rosario Barone , Andrea Tancredi

Dealing with finite Markov chains in discrete time, the focus often lies on convergence behavior and one tries to make different copies of the chain meet as fast as possible and then stick together. There is, however, a very peculiar kind…

概率论 · 数学 2017-02-15 Timo Hirscher , Anders Martinsson

This paper investigates the limit behavior of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) made of independent particles evolving in a common environment, when the number of particles goes to infinity. In the finite horizon case or with a discounted…

概率论 · 数学 2009-06-10 Nicolas Gast , Bruno Gaujal

We study the random acceleration model, which is perhaps one of the simplest, yet nontrivial, non-Markov stochastic processes, and is key to many applications. For this non-Markov process, we present exact analytical results for the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2019-09-04 Satya N. Majumdar , Alberto Rosso , Andrea Zoia

Regularly varying stochastic processes are able to model extremal dependence between process values at locations in random fields. We investigate the empirical extremogram as an estimator of dependence in the extremes. We provide conditions…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-04-11 Sven Buhl , Claudia Klüppelberg

We study long time behavior of a discrete time weakly interacting particle system, and the corresponding nonlinear Markov process in $\mathbb{R}^d$, described in terms of a general stochastic evolution equation. In a setting where the state…

概率论 · 数学 2014-01-16 Amarjit Budhiraja , Abhishek Pal Majumder

We investigate the convergence to (quasi--)equilibrium of a density dependent Markov chain in~${\mathbb Z}^d$, whose drift satisfies a system of ordinary differential equations having an attractive fixed point. For a sequence of such…

概率论 · 数学 2025-08-21 Andrew Barbour , Graham Brightwell , Malwina Luczak

Certain Markov processes, or deterministic evolution equations, have the property that they are dual to a stochastic process that exhibits extinction versus unbounded growth, i.e., the total mass in such a process either becomes zero, or…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Jan M. Swart

This paper deals with a one--dimensional model for granular materials, which boils down to an inelastic version of the Kac kinetic equation, with inelasticity parameter $p>0$. In particular, the paper provides bounds for certain distances…

数学物理 · 物理学 2009-11-13 Federico Bassetti , Lucia Ladelli , Eugenio Regazzini

For a stochastic process $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ we establish conditions under which the inverse first-passage time problem has a solution for any random variable $\xi >0$. For Markov processes we give additional conditions under which the…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-19 Alexander Klump , Mladen Savov

We investigate stationary hidden Markov processes for which mutual information between the past and the future is infinite. It is assumed that the number of observable states is finite and the number of hidden states is countably infinite.…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2020-03-11 Łukasz Dębowski

A fundamental problem of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics is the derivation of macroscopic transport equations in the hydrodynamic limit. The rigorous study of such limits requires detailed information about rates of convergence to…

数学物理 · 物理学 2015-05-30 Alexander Grigo , Konstantin Khanin , Domokos Szasz