相关论文: Bayesian model comparison applied to the Explorer-…

We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…

We consider the issue of reporting the result of search experiment in the most unbiased and efficient way, i.e. in a way which allows an easy interpretation and combination of results and which do not depend on whether the experimenters…

Sensitivity forecasts inform the design of experiments and the direction of theoretical efforts. To arrive at representative results, Bayesian forecasts should marginalize their conclusions over uncertain parameters and noise realizations…

As gravitational-wave catalogs grow, they will become increasingly computationally expensive to analyze in their entirety, especially when inferring astrophysical source populations with high-dimensional, flexible models. Bayesian…

When using complex Bayesian models to combine information, the checking for consistency of the information being combined is good statistical practice. Here a new method is developed for detecting prior-data conflicts in Bayesian models…

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

First principles microphysics models are essential to the design and analysis of high energy density physics experiments. Using experimental data to investigate the underlying physics is also essential, particularly when simulations and…

We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, $\rho$, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We…

We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…

Bayesian evidence is a standard tool used for comparing the ability of different models to fit available data and is used extensively in cosmology. However, since the evidence calculation involves performing an integral of the likelihood…

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…

For many classification and regression problems, a large number of features are available for possible use - this is typical of DNA microarray data on gene expression, for example. Often, for computational or other reasons, only a small…

Hierarchical Bayesian inference can simultaneously account for both measurement uncertainty and selection effects within astronomical catalogs. In particular, the hierarchy imposed encodes beliefs about the interdependence of the physical…

Strong lensing of gravitational waves can produce several detectable images as repeated events in the upcoming observing runs, which can be detected with the posterior overlap analysis (Bayes factor). The choice of the binary black hole…

In this paper we consider the issue of paradigm evaluation by applying Bayes' theorem along the following nested hierarchy of progressively more complex structures: i) parameter estimation (within a model), ii) model selection and…

The conventional approach to Bayesian decision-theoretic experiment design involves searching over possible experiments to select a design that maximizes the expected value of a specified utility function. The expectation is over the joint…

Experimental design is crucial for inference where limitations in the data collection procedure are present due to cost or other restrictions. Optimal experimental designs determine parameters that in some appropriate sense make the data…

The Bayes factor is the gold-standard figure of merit for comparing fits of models to data, for hypothesis selection and parameter estimation. However it is little used because it is computationally very intensive. Here it is shown how…

Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…