相关论文: Bayesian model comparison applied to the Explorer-…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Experiments on decision making under uncertainty are known to display a classical pattern of risk aversion and risk seeking referred to as "fourfold pattern" (or "reflection effect") , but recent experiments varying the speed and order of…

Some scientific research questions ask to guide decisions and others do not. By their nature frequentist hypothesis-tests yield a dichotomous test decision as result, rendering them rather inappropriate for latter types of research…

Variable clustering is important for explanatory analysis. However, only few dedicated methods for variable clustering with the Gaussian graphical model have been proposed. Even more severe, small insignificant partial correlations due to…

We combine amortized neural posterior estimation with importance sampling for fast and accurate gravitational-wave inference. We first generate a rapid proposal for the Bayesian posterior using neural networks, and then attach importance…

An analyst observes an agent take a sequence of actions. The analyst does not have access to the agent's information and ponders whether the observed actions could be justified through a rational Bayesian model with a known utility…

Gravitational-wave data from advanced-era interferometric detectors consists of background Gaussian noise, frequent transient artefacts, and rare astrophysical signals. Multiple search algorithms exist to detect the signals from compact…

The ringdown of the gravitational-wave signal from a merger of two black holes has been suggested as a probe of the structure of the remnant compact object, which may be more exotic than a black hole. It has been pointed out that there will…

In this paper, we employ variational arguments to establish a connection between ensemble methods for Neural Networks and Bayesian inference. We consider an ensemble-based scheme where each model/particle corresponds to a perturbation of…

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and…

In addition to serve as platforms for dynamic spectrum access, cognitive radios can also serve as a method for improving the performance of wireless communication systems by smartly adjusting their operating parameters according to the…

A gravitational-wave background can be detected in pulsar-timing-array data as Hellings--Downs correlations among the timing residuals measured for different pulsars. The optimal statistic implements this concept as a classical…

There are at present ${\cal O}(100)$ gravitational-wave candidates from compact binary mergers reported in the astronomical literature. As detector sensitivities are improved, the catalog will swell in size: first to ${\cal O}(1000)$ events…

Analyzes of next-generation galaxy data require accurate treatment of systematic effects such as the bias between observed galaxies and the underlying matter density field. However, proposed models of the phenomenon are either numerically…

Improving the understanding of signal and background distributions in signal-region is a valuable key to enhance any analysis in collider physics. This is usually a difficult task because -- among others -- signal and backgrounds are hard…

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

In observational studies, instrumental variables estimation is greatly utilized to identify causal effects. One of the key conditions for the instrumental variables estimator to be consistent is the exclusion restriction, which indicates…

Gravitational waves astronomy has opened a new opportunity to study the Universe. Full exploitation of this window can especially be provided by combining data coming from gravitational waves experiments with luminous tracers of the Large…

Regression for spatially dependent outcomes poses many challenges, for inference and for computation. Non-spatial models and traditional spatial mixed-effects models each have their advantages and disadvantages, making it difficult for…

To understand their data better, astronomers need to use statistical tools that are more advanced than traditional ``freshman lab'' statistics. As an illustration, the problem of combining apparently incompatible measurements of a quantity…