相关论文: Bayesian model comparison applied to the Explorer-…
Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…
The detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration has ushered in a new era of observational astronomy, emphasizing the need for rapid and detailed parameter estimation and population-level analyses. Traditional…
Over the past decade and a half, adoption of Bayesian inference in pulsar timing analysis has led to increasingly sophisticated models. The recent announcement of evidence for a stochastic background of gravitational waves by various pulsar…
The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…
Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in…
Bayesian linear mixed-effects models and Bayesian ANOVA are increasingly being used in the cognitive sciences to perform null hypothesis tests, where a null hypothesis that an effect is zero is compared with an alternative hypothesis that…
Because of the electromagnetic radiation produced during the merger, compact binary coalescences with neutron stars may result in multi-messenger observations. In order to follow up on the gravitational-wave signal with electromagnetic…
Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…
Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into…
Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…
Bayesian model selection provides a natural alternative to classical hypothesis testing based on p-values. While many papers mention that Bayesian model selection is frequently sensitive to prior specification on the parameters, there are…
The use of the loudest observed event to generate statistical statements about rate and strength has become standard in searches for gravitational waves from compact binaries and pulsars. The Bayesian formulation of the method is…
Gravitational wave models are used to infer the properties of black holes in merging binaries from the observed gravitational wave signals through Bayesian inference. Although we have access to a large collection of signal models that are…
This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…
Gaussian Process (GP) emulators are widely used to approximate complex computer model behaviour across the input space. Motivated by the problem of coupling computer models, recently progress has been made in the theory of the analysis of…
In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…
Two recent studies have attempted to constrain the proposed $p$-$g$ tidal instability with gravitational-wave data from GW170817. The studies use Bayesian methods to compare a model that includes $p$-$g$ tidal effects with one that does…
Accurate modeling of selection effects is a key ingredient to the success of gravitational-wave astronomy. The detection probability plays a crucial role in both statistical population studies, where it enters the hierarchical Bayesian…
Linear mixed models are widely used for analyzing hierarchically structured data involving missingness and unbalanced study designs. We consider a Bayesian clustering method that combines linear mixed models and predictive projections. For…
I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation--Inference--Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data…