相关论文: Evidence with Uncertain Likelihoods

There have been controversies among statisticians on (i) what to model and (ii) how to make inferences from models with unobservables. One such controversy concerns the difference between estimation methods for the marginal means not…

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…

One can argue that one of the main roles of the subject of statistics is to characterize what the evidence in collected data says about questions of scientific interest. There are two broad questions that we will refer to as the estimation…

How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…

In the interpretation of experimental data, one is actually looking for plausible explanations. We look for a measure of plausibility, with which we can compare different possible explanations, and which can be combined when there are…

Studying the effects of one-way variation of any number of parameters on any number of output probabilities quickly becomes infeasible in practice, especially if various evidence profiles are to be taken into consideration. To provide for…

The combination of argumentation and probability paves the way to new accounts of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty, thereby offering new theoretical and applicative opportunities. Due to a variety of interests, probabilistic…

The notion of belief likelihood function of repeated trials is introduced, whenever the uncertainty for individual trials is encoded by a belief measure (a finite random set). This generalises the traditional likelihood function, and…

A primary motivation for reasoning under uncertainty is to derive decisions in the face of inconclusive evidence. However, Shafer's theory of belief functions, which explicitly represents the underconstrained nature of many reasoning…

Much artificial intelligence research focuses on the problem of deducing the validity of unobservable propositions or hypotheses from observable evidence.! Many of the knowledge representation techniques designed for this problem encode the…

Combining measurements which have "theoretical uncertainties" is a delicate matter, due to an unclear statistical basis. We present an algorithm based on the notion that a theoretical uncertainty represents an estimate of bias.

Many prediction tasks contain uncertainty. In some cases, uncertainty is inherent in the task itself. In future prediction, for example, many distinct outcomes are equally valid. In other cases, uncertainty arises from the way data is…

The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment…

The likelihood principle makes strong claims about the nature of statistical evidence but is controversial. Its claims are undermined by the existence of several examples that are assumed to show that it allows, with unity probability,…

The sensitivities revealed by a sensitivity analysis of a probabilistic network typically depend on the entered evidence. For a real-life network therefore, the analysis is performed a number of times, with different evidence. Although…

In this work, we use the Belief Function Theory which extends the probabilistic framework in order to provide uncertainty bounds to different categories of crowd density estimators. Our method allows us to compare the multi-scale…

The likelihood function represents statistical evidence in the context of data and a probability model. Considerable theory has demonstrated that evidence strength for different parameter values can be interpreted from the ratio of…

In this paper, we provide more evidence for the contention that logical consequence should be understood in normative terms. Hartry Field and John MacFarlane covered the classical case. We extend their work, examining what it means for an…

I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…

While Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its…