相关论文: Critical Crashes?
The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural,…
In this paper some critical aspects of the behaviour of breaking lattices subject to slow driving forces are briefly reviewed. In particular fluctuations in the response to the variation of external parameters are discussed.
Oft-cited causes of mini-flash crashes include human errors, endogenous feedback loops, the nature of modern liquidity provision, fundamental value shocks, and market fragmentation. We develop a mathematical model which captures aspects of…
We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…
We respond to Sornette and Johansen's criticisms of our findings regarding log-periodic precursors to financial crashes. Included in this paper are discussions of the Sornette-Johansen theoretical paradigm, traditional methods of…
A critical review is presented on the most recent attempt to generally explain the notion of "statistical symmetry". This particular explanation, however, is incomplete and misses one important and essential aspect. The aim of this short…
The emergence and evolution of real-world systems have been extensively studied in the last few years. However, equally important phenomena are related to the dynamics of systems' collapse, which has been less explored, especially when they…
This article examines the subtle relationship between chaos and randomness, two concepts that, although they refer to seemingly unpredictable phenomenon, are based on fundamentally different principles. Chaos manifests in deterministic…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
This paper explores the mechanisms behind extreme financial events, specifically market crashes, by employing the theoretical framework of phase transitions. We focus on endogenous crashes, driven by internal market dynamics, and model…
We study a rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes. The model has two components : (1) our key assumption is that a crash may be caused by local self-reinforcing imitation between noise traders. If the tendency for noise traders…
Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…
A brief historical perspective is first given concerning financial crashes, - from the 17th till the 20th century. In modern times, it seems that log periodic oscillations are found before crashes in several financial indices. The same is…
We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…
The principal aim of this work is the evidence on empirical way that catastrophic bifurcation breakdowns or transitions, proceeded by flickering phenomenon, are present on notoriously significant and unpredictable financial markets.…
The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…
We introduce a general theoretical scheme for a class of phenomena characterized by an extremal dynamics and quenched disorder. The approach is based on a transformation of the quenched dynamics into a stochastic one with cognitive memory…
The combination of the compactness of networks, featuring small diameters, and their complex architectures results in a variety of critical effects dramatically different from those in cooperative systems on lattices. In the last few years,…
Fatigue failure can be thought by studying the collective motions of defects inside materials instead of focusing on the growth of a pre-existing micro-crack. An experimental study of the statistical distribution of acoustic emissions…
We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset…