相关论文: From HIV infection to AIDS: A dynamically induced …

We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…

Viral infections trigger complex immune responses with heterogeneous outcomes shaped by nonlinear feedbacks. An ordinary differential equation model is developed to investigate immune response dynamics during viral infection, incorporating…

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model in complex networks, considering that not all individuals in the population interact in the same way between them. This heterogeneity between contacts is modeled by a continuous disorder. In…

Cross-sectional incidence estimation based on recency testing has become a widely used tool in HIV research. Recently, this method has gained prominence in HIV prevention trials to estimate the "placebo" incidence that participants might…

Spatio-temporal extensions of familiar compartment models for disease transmission incorporating diffusive behavior, or interactions between individuals at separate locations, are explored. The models considered have the character of…

Genetic sequence data of pathogens are increasingly used to investigate transmission dynamics in both endemic diseases and disease outbreaks; such research can aid in development of appropriate interventions and in design of studies to…

Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…

In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental…

We study the dynamics of secondary infections on networks, in which only the individuals currently carrying a certain primary infection are susceptible to the secondary infection. In the limit of large sparse networks, the model is mapped…

During chronic infection, HIV-1 engages in a rapid coevolutionary arms race with the host's adaptive immune system. While it is clear that HIV exerts strong selection on the adaptive immune system, the characteristics of the somatic…

The evolution of drug resistance in HIV occurs by the fixation of specific, well-known, drug-resistance mutations, but the underlying population genetic processes are not well understood. By analyzing within-patient longitudinal sequence…

As pathogens spread in a population of hosts, immunity is built up and the pool of susceptible individuals is depleted. This generates selective pressure, to which many human RNA viruses, such as influenza virus or SARS-CoV-2, respond with…

We introduce the generalized diffusive epidemic process, which is a metapopulation model for an epidemic outbreak where a non-sedentary population of walkers can jump along lattice edges with diffusion rates $D_S$ or $D_I$ if they are…

The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental…

HIV is a retrovirus that attacks the human immune system and can lead to death without proper treatment. In collaboration with the WHO and Wits University, we study how to improve the efficiency of HIV testing with the goal of eventual…

In this paper we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR type model defined by Tuckwell and Williams. The SIR model by Tuckwell and Williams assumes a homogeneous population, a fixed infectious period, and a strict transition from…

Pathogen deep-sequencing is an increasingly routinely used technology in infectious disease surveillance. We present a semi-parametric Bayesian Poisson model to exploit these emerging data for inferring infectious disease transmission flows…

It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…

Human Papillomaviruses (HPV) are one of the most prevalent sexually transmitted infections (STI) and the most oncogenic viruses known to humans. The vast majority of HPV infections clear in less than 3 years, but the underlying mechanisms,…

We discovered a dynamic phase transition induced by sexual reproduction. The dynamics is a pure Darwinian rule with both fundamental ingredients to drive evolution: 1) random mutations and crossings which act in the sense of increasing the…