相关论文: Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups

Collective intelligence, which aggregates the shared information from large crowds, is often negatively impacted by unreliable information sources with the low quality data. This becomes a barrier to the effective use of collective…

While methods for measuring and correcting differential performance in risk prediction models have proliferated in recent years, most existing techniques can only be used to assess fairness across relatively large subgroups. The purpose of…

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Generating models from large data sets -- and determining which subsets of data to mine -- is becoming increasingly automated. However choosing what data to collect in the first place requires human intuition or experience, usually supplied…

Many financial and economic variables, including financial returns, exhibit nonlinear dependence, heterogeneity and heavy-tailedness. These properties may make problematic the analysis of (non-)efficiency and volatility clustering in…

Prediction markets are powerful tools to elicit and aggregate beliefs from strategic agents. However, in current prediction markets, agents may exhaust the social welfare by competing to be the first to update the market. We initiate the…

Prediction markets are often described as mechanisms that ``aggregate information'' into prices, yet the mapping from dispersed private information to observed market histories is typically noisy, endogenous, and shaped by heterogeneous and…

Prediction markets elicit and aggregate beliefs by paying agents based on how close their predictions are to a verifiable future outcome. However, outcomes of many important questions are difficult to verify or unverifiable, in that the…

We introduce a new method for estimating the mean of an outcome variable within groups when researchers only observe the average of the outcome and group indicators across a set of aggregation units, such as geographical areas. Existing…

It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method…

This paper demonstrates a methodology for examining the accuracy of uncertain inference systems (UIS), after their parameters have been optimized, and does so for several common UIS's. This methodology may be used to test the accuracy when…

Models necessarily capture only parts of a reality. Prediction models aim at capturing a future reality. In this paper we address the question of how the future is constructed (or: imagined) in an investment context where market…

There are two reasons why uncertainty may not be adequately described by Probability Theory. The first one is due to unique or nearly-unique events, that either never realized or occurred too seldom for frequencies to be reliably measured.…

We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is…

Decision-makers consult multiple forecasts to account for uncertainties when forming judgments about future events. While prior works have compared unaggregated and highly-aggregated designs for displaying multiple forecasts (e.g., Multiple…

We develop a stochastic equilibrium model for an electricity market with asymmetric renewable energy forecasts. In our setting, market participants optimize their profits using public information about a conditional expectation of energy…

We present a novel, input-output data-driven approach to uncertainty model identification. As the true bounds and distributions of system uncertainties ultimately remain unknown, we depart from the goal of identifying the uncertainty model…

This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing population forecasts using Estonia as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria used by…

Predicting the future direction of community evolution is a problem with high theoretical and practical significance. It allows to determine which characteristics describing communities have importance from the point of view of their future…

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…