相关论文: Forecasting Uncertain Events with Small Groups

We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…

We study the empirical likelihood approach to construct confidence intervals for the optimal value and the optimality gap of a given solution, henceforth quantify the statistical uncertainty of sample average approximation, for optimization…

Future Event Prediction (FEP) is an essential activity whose demand and application range across multiple domains. While traditional methods like simulations, predictive and time-series forecasting have demonstrated promising outcomes,…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

The emergence of nontrivial collective behavior in networks of coupled chaotic maps is investigated by means of a nonlinear mutual prediction method. The resulting prediction error is used to measure the amount of information that a local…

I describe a planning methodology for domains with uncertainty in the form of external events that are not completely predictable. The events are represented by enabling conditions and probabilities of occurrence. The planner is…

A new general procedure for a priori selection of more predictable events from a time series of observed variable is proposed. The procedure is applicable to time series which contains different types of events that feature significantly…

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability…

We consider the problem of deciding on sampling strategy, in particular sampling design. We propose a risk measure, whose minimizing value guides the choice. The method makes use of a superpopulation model and takes into account uncertainty…

Research in neural networks in the field of computer vision has achieved remarkable accuracy for point estimation. However, the uncertainty in the estimation is rarely addressed. Uncertainty quantification accompanied by point estimation…

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically,…

The correct use and interpretation of models depends on several steps, two of which being the calibration by parameter estimation and the analysis of uncertainty. In the biological literature, these steps are seldom discussed together, but…

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

We study a setting where Bayesian agents with a common prior have private information related to an event's outcome and sequentially make public announcements relating to their information. Our main result shows that when agents' private…

With the widespread adoption of process mining in organizations, the field of process science is seeing an increase in the demand for ad-hoc analysis techniques of non-standard event data. An example of such data are uncertain event data:…

Many data mining approaches aim at modelling and predicting human behaviour. An important quantity of interest is the quality of model-based predictions, e.g. for finding a competition winner with best prediction performance. In real life,…

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Anticipating future activities in video is a task with many practical applications. While earlier approaches are limited to just a few seconds in the future, the prediction time horizon has just recently been extended to several minutes in…

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…