相关论文: On model selection forecasting, Dark Energy and mo…

The selection of optimal designs for generalized linear mixed models is complicated by the fact that the Fisher information matrix, on which most optimality criteria depend, is computationally expensive to evaluate. Our focus is on the…

This is the third in a series of papers that develop a new and flexible model to predict weak-lensing (WL) peak counts, which have been shown to be a very valuable non-Gaussian probe of cosmology. In this paper, we compare the cosmological…

This is an introduction to Bayesian inference with a focus on hierarchical models and hyper-parameters. We write primarily for an audience of Bayesian novices, but we hope to provide useful insights for seasoned veterans as well. Examples…

The fine-tuning of pre-trained language models has resulted in the widespread availability of task-specific models. Model merging offers an efficient way to create multi-task models by combining these fine-tuned models at the parameter…

Increasingly large parameter spaces, used to more accurately model precision observables in physics, can paradoxically lead to large deviations in the inferred parameters of interest -- a bias known as volume projection effects -- when…

Maximum likelihood estimation is a popular method in statistical inference. As a way of assessing the accuracy of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), the calculation of the covariance matrix of the MLE is of great interest in practice.…

We propose a modification of a maximum likelihood procedure for tuning parameter values in models, based upon the comparison of their output to field data. Our methodology, which uses polynomial approximations of the sample space to…

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper we propose an empirical approach to model selection…

The Fisher matrix (FM) has been generally used to predict the accuracy of the gravitational wave parameter estimation. Although a limitation of the FM has been well known, it is still mainly used due to its very low computational cost…

Context. The Galactic magnetic field (GMF) has a huge impact on the evolution of the Milky Way. Yet currently there exists no standard model for it, as its structure is not fully understood. In the past many parametric GMF models of varying…

In many statistical applications that concern mathematical psychologists, the concept of Fisher information plays an important role. In this tutorial we clarify the concept of Fisher information as it manifests itself across three different…

We advocate for a new paradigm of cosmological likelihood-based inference, leveraging recent developments in machine learning and its underlying technology, to accelerate Bayesian inference in high-dimensional settings. Specifically, we…

Latent force models are a class of hybrid models for dynamic systems, combining simple mechanistic models with flexible Gaussian process (GP) perturbations. An extension of this framework to include multiplicative interactions between the…

For estimating area-specific parameters (quantities) in a finite population, a mixed model prediction approach is attractive. However, this approach strongly depends on the normality assumption of the response values although we often…

Gaussian graphical models are used for determining conditional relationships between variables. This is accomplished by identifying off-diagonal elements in the inverse-covariance matrix that are non-zero. When the ratio of variables (p) to…

For in vivo research experiments with small sample sizes and available historical data, we propose a sequential Bayesian method for the Behrens-Fisher problem. We consider it as a model choice question with two models in competition: one…

The future space-borne Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to detect gravitational waves (GW) from Extreme Mass Ratio Inspiral (EMRI) binaries which may live in nontrivial environments such as accretion disks. In this…

This paper studies semiparametric Fisher information in models parametrized by general normed spaces. The main contribution is to establish that positive semiparametric Fisher information is equivalent to the gradient of the parameter of…

How to design a Markov Decision Process (MDP) based radar controller that makes small sacrifices in performance to mask its sensing plan from an adversary? The radar controller purposefully minimizes the Fisher information of its emissions…