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The aim of this paper is to propose an adaptation of the well known adaptive conformal inference (ACI) algorithm to achieve finite-sample coverage guarantees in multi-step ahead time-series forecasting in the online setting. ACI dynamically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-09-24 Johan Hallberg Szabadváry

We consider the problem of forming prediction sets in an online setting where the distribution generating the data is allowed to vary over time. Previous approaches to this problem suffer from over-weighting historical data and thus may…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-09 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Conformal Inference (CI) is a popular approach for generating finite sample prediction intervals based on the output of any point prediction method when data are exchangeable. Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) algorithms extend CI to the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-12-04 Herbert Susmann , Antoine Chambaz , Julie Josse

Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) provides distribution-free prediction intervals with asymptotic coverage guarantees for time series under distribution shift. However, ACI only adapts the quantile threshold -- it cannot shift the interval…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-16 Ankit Lade , Sai Krishna J. , Indar Kumar

A new framework is developed for control of constrained nonlinear systems with structured parametric uncertainties. Forward invariance of a safe set is achieved through online parameter adaptation and data-driven model estimation. The new…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-06-01 Brett T. Lopez , Jean-Jacques E. Slotine , Jonathan P. How

This work presents a new sufficient condition for synthesizing nonlinear controllers that yield bounded closed-loop tracking error transients despite the presence of unmatched uncertainties that are concurrently being learned online. The…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-10-23 Samuel G. Gessow , Brett T. Lopez

Safety assurance is critical in the planning and control of robotic systems. For robots operating in the real world, the safety-critical design often needs to explicitly address uncertainties and the pre-computed guarantees often rely on…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2024-07-09 Hao Zhou , Yanze Zhang , Wenhao Luo

Ensuring safety in autonomous driving requires precise, real-time risk assessment and adaptive behavior. Prior work on risk estimation either outputs coarse, global scene-level metrics lacking interpretability, proposes indicators without…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-08-06 Boyang Tian , Weisong Shi

We address the problem of conformal selection, where an agent must select a minimal subset of options to ensure that at least one ``success'' is identified with a pre-specified target probability $\phi$. While traditional online conformal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Sreenivas Gollapudi , Kostas Kollias , Kamesh Munagala , Ali Sinop

In a supervised online setting, quantifying uncertainty has been proposed in the seminal work of \cite{gibbs2021adaptive}. For any given point-prediction algorithm, their method (ACI) produces a conformal prediction set with an average…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-11-24 Pierre Humbert , Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain

This paper studies the control of safety-critical dynamical systems in the presence of adversarial disturbances. We seek to synthesize state-feedback controllers to minimize a cost incurred due to the disturbance, while respecting a safety…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-09-22 Bhaskar Ramasubramanian , Baicen Xiao , Linda Bushnell , Radha Poovendran

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam

This paper presents a novel approach for the safe control design of systems with parametric uncertainties in both drift terms and control-input matrices. The method combines control barrier functions and adaptive laws to generate a safe…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-04-16 Yujie Wang , Xiangru Xu

Uncertainty quantification of predictive models is crucial in decision-making problems. Conformal prediction is a general and theoretically sound answer. However, it requires exchangeable data, excluding time series. While recent works…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-02-16 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Olivier Féron , Yannig Goude , Julie Josse

This paper considers the problem of controlling a piecewise continuously differentiable system subject to time-varying uncertainties. The uncertainties are decomposed into a time-invariant, linearly-parameterized portion and a time-varying…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-03-12 Ying-Chun Chen , Craig Woolsey

In this work, an adaptive predictive control scheme for linear systems with unknown parameters and bounded additive disturbances is proposed. In contrast to related adaptive control approaches that robustly consider the parametric…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-03-03 Johannes Teutsch , Christopher Narr , Sebastian Kerz , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

Solving chance-constrained optimal control problems for systems subject to non-stationary uncertainties is a significant challenge.Conventional robust model predictive control (MPC) often yields excessive conservatism by relying on static…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-07-16 Mingcong Li

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-09-23 Divake Kumar , Nastaran Darabi , Sina Tayebati , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Automated vehicle technologies offer a promising avenue for enhancing traffic efficiency, safety, and energy consumption. Among these, Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems stand out as a prevalent form of automation on today's roads, with…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-06-23 Shaimaa K. El-Baklish , Anastasios Kouvelas , Michail A. Makridis

We develop an adaptive control architecture to achieve stabilization and command following of uncertain dynamical systems with improved transient performance. Our framework consists of a new reference system and an adaptive controller. The…

动力系统 · 数学 2013-09-27 Tansel Yucelen , Gerardo De La Torre , Eric N. Johnson
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