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Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

A common task in high-throughput biology is to screen for associations across thousands of units of interest, e.g., genes or proteins. Often, the data for each unit are modeled as Gaussian measurements with unknown mean and variance and are…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-01 Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Bodhisattva Sen

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-05 Ryan Martin

In broad applications, it is routinely of interest to assess whether there is evidence in the data to refute the assumption of conditional independence of $Y$ and $X$ conditionally on $Z$. Such tests are well developed in parametric models…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-25 Tsuyoshi Kunihama , David B. Dunson

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-13 Metod Jazbec , Eliot Wong-Toi , Guoxuan Xia , Dan Zhang , Eric Nalisnick , Stephan Mandt

We present a general framework for Bayesian inference of causal effects that delivers provably robust inferences founded on design-based randomization of treatments. The framework involves fixing the observed potential outcomes and forming…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-04 Easton Huch , Fred Feinberg , Walter Dempsey

We introduce a flexible empirical Bayes approach for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models. Specifically, we adopt a novel mean-field variational inference (VI) method and the prior is estimated within the VI algorithm, making the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-30 Dongyue Xie , Wanrong Zhu , Matthew Stephens

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

When random effects are correlated with sample design variables, the usual approach of employing individual survey weights (constructed to be inversely proportional to the unit survey inclusion probabilities) to form a pseudo-likelihood no…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-26 Terrance D. Savitsky , Matthew R. Williams

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

Undirected graphical models are applied in genomics, protein structure prediction, and neuroscience to identify sparse interactions that underlie discrete data. Although Bayesian methods for inference would be favorable in these contexts,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-06-15 John Ingraham , Debora Marks

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-09 Samuel Pawel

This paper develops new insights into quantitative methods for the validation of computational model prediction. Four types of methods are investigated, namely classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing, a reliability-based method, and an…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2012-06-25 You Ling , Sankaran Mahadevan

This work proposes $\mu$GUIDE: a general Bayesian framework to estimate posterior distributions of tissue microstructure parameters from any given biophysical model or MRI signal representation, with exemplar demonstration in…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-09-05 Maëliss Jallais , Marco Palombo

Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-15 Alejandra Estefanía Patiño Hoyos , Johnatan Cardona Jiménez

This paper studies the problem of distributed classification with a network of heterogeneous agents. The agents seek to jointly identify the underlying target class that best describes a sequence of observations. The problem is first…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2020-11-24 James Z. Hare , Cesar A. Uribe , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

A nonparametric Bayes approach is proposed for the problem of estimating a sparse sequence based on Gaussian random variables. We adopt the popular two-group prior with one component being a point mass at zero, and the other component being…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-05-31 Yunbo Ouyang , Feng Liang

We present a Bayesian methodology for infinite as well as finite dimensional parameter identification for partial differential equation models. The Bayesian framework provides a rigorous mathematical framework for incorporating prior…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2016-05-17 Eduard Campillo-Funollet , Chandrasekhar Venkataraman , Anotida Madzvamuse