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It has historically been a challenge to perform Bayesian inference in a design-based survey context. The present paper develops a Bayesian model for sampling inference in the presence of inverse-probability weights. We use a hierarchical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Natesh S. Pillai , Andrew Gelman

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2016-04-20 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Ruedi Stoop

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-08 Juan Sosa , Carlos A. Martínez , Danna Cruz

The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-02-05 Yaodong Yang , Rui Luo , Yuanyuan Liu

We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-10-27 Sumit Mukherjee , Bodhisattva Sen , Subhabrata Sen

We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-11-26 Iván Díaz , Oleksander Savenkov , Hooman Kamel

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-12-23 Dimitris Korobilis , Kenichi Shimizu

The simultaneous estimation of multiple unknown parameters lies at heart of a broad class of important problems across science and technology. Currently, the state-of-the-art performance in the such problems is achieved by nonparametric…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-05-30 Alton Barbehenn , Sihai Dave Zhao

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals has attracted growing attention as a statistical tool for performing critical decision-making. We propose a Bayesian inference framework that quantifies the uncertainty in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-19 Shunsuke Horii , Yoichi Chikahara

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Bingjing Tang , Vinayak Rao

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-24 Selva Salimi , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-14 David T. Frazier , Robert Kohn , Christopher Drovandi , David Gunawan

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2017-09-12 Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Giulio Bottegal , Håkan Hjalmarsson

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-10-31 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan

We propose a new empirical Bayes approach for inference in the $p \gg n$ normal linear model. The novelty is the use of data in the prior in two ways, for centering and regularization. Under suitable sparsity assumptions, we establish a…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-12-06 Ryan Martin , Raymond Mess , Stephen G. Walker

In this paper we show that the classical problem of frequency estimation can be formulated and solved efficiently in an empirical Bayesian framework by assigning a uniform a priori probability distribution to the unknown frequency. We…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-10-27 Giorgio Picci , Bin Zhu

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-16 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Felix J. Herrmann