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The use of machine learning methods for predictive purposes has increased dramatically over the past two decades, but uncertainty quantification for predictive comparisons remains elusive. This paper addresses this gap by extending the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-05-09 Juan Carlos Escanciano , Ricardo Parra

This note attempts to revisit the classical results on Laplace approximation in a modern non-asymptotic and dimension free form. Such an extension is motivated by applications to high dimensional statistical and optimization problems. The…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-13 Vladimir Spokoiny

This paper introduces a loss-based generalized Bayesian methodology for high-dimensional robust regression with serially correlated errors and predictors. The proposed framework employs a novel scaled pseudo-Huber (SPH) loss function, which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-13 Saptarshi Chakraborty , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

Early-exit neural networks enable adaptive computation by allowing confident predictions to exit at intermediate layers, achieving 2-8$\times$ inference speedup. Despite widespread deployment, their generalization properties lack…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-20 Dongxin Guo , Jikun Wu , Siu Ming Yiu

Motivated by the result of invariance of regular-boundary open sets in \cite{CannarsaDaPratoFrankowska2009} and multi-stability issues in gene networks, our paper focuses on three closely related aims. First, we give a necessary local…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2018-08-14 Dan Goreac

In a Bayesian context, prior specification for inference on monotone densities is conceptually straightforward, but proving posterior convergence theorems is complicated by the fact that desirable prior concentration properties often are…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-07-28 Ryan Martin

Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding reinforcement learning in discounted infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) by deriving tight sample complexity bounds. However, in many real-world applications, an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-05-12 Christoph Dann , Emma Brunskill

Standard probabilistic sparse coding assumes a Laplace prior, a linear mapping from latents to observables, and Gaussian observable distributions. We here derive a solely entropy-based learning objective for the parameters of standard…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-11 Dmytro Velychko , Simon Damm , Asja Fischer , Jörg Lücke

We propose a novel adaptive empirical Bayesian method for sparse deep learning, where the sparsity is ensured via a class of self-adaptive spike-and-slab priors. The proposed method works by alternatively sampling from an adaptive…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-04-15 Wei Deng , Xiao Zhang , Faming Liang , Guang Lin

Phylodynamics is an area of population genetics that uses genetic sequence data to estimate past population dynamics. Modern state-of-the-art Bayesian nonparametric methods for recovering population size trajectories of unknown form use…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-02 James R. Faulkner , Andrew F. Magee , Beth Shapiro , Vladimir N. Minin

We consider the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) on a semi-infinite chain which is coupled at the end to a reservoir with a particle density that changes periodically in time. It is shown that the density profile assumes a…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-13 Vladislav Popkov , Mario Salerno , Gunter M. Schutz

This paper outlines a framework for quantifying the prior's contribution to posterior inference in the presence of prior-likelihood discordance, a broader concept than the usual notion of prior-likelihood conflict. We achieve this dual…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-08 Matthew Reimherr , Xiao-Li Meng , Dan L. Nicolae

The false discovery proportion (FDP) is a convenient way to account for false positives when a large number $m$ of tests are performed simultaneously. Romano and Wolf [Ann. Statist. 35 (2007) 1378-1408] have proposed a general principle…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-06-08 Sylvain Delattre , Etienne Roquain

Algorithms based on the hard thresholding principle have been well studied with sounding theoretical guarantees in the compressed sensing and more general sparsity-constrained optimization. It is widely observed in existing empirical…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2021-11-17 Shenglong Zhou , Naihua Xiu , Hou-Duo Qi

We investigate the existence and severity of local modes in posterior distributions from Bayesian analyses. These are known to occur in posterior tails resulting from heavy-tailed error models such as those used in robust regression. To…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-02-09 Sanket Agrawal , Sebastiano Grazzi , Gareth O. Roberts

Let T be a rooted supercritical multi-type Galton-Watson (MGW) tree with types coming from a finite alphabet, conditioned to non-extinction. The lambda-biased random walk (X_t, t>=0) on T is the nearest-neighbor random walk which, when at a…

概率论 · 数学 2012-05-08 Amir Dembo , Nike Sun

We study the rate of convergence of posterior distributions in density estimation problems for log-densities in periodic Sobolev classes characterized by a smoothness parameter p. The posterior expected density provides a nonparametric…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-09-29 Catia Scricciolo

We tackle modelling and inference for variable selection in regression problems with many predictors and many responses. We focus on detecting hotspots, i.e., predictors associated with several responses. Such a task is critical in…

We consider Bayesian inverse problems arising in data assimilation for dynamical systems governed by partial and stochastic partial differential equations. The space-time dependent field is inferred jointly with static parameters of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-03-20 Baptiste Simandoux , Nikolas Kantas , Dan Crisan

Bayesian coresets speed up posterior inference in the large-scale data regime by approximating the full-data log-likelihood function with a surrogate log-likelihood based on a small, weighted subset of the data. But while Bayesian coresets…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-18 Trevor Campbell