相关论文: Interplay between evolutionary and epidemic time s…
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…
Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
We consider a behavioral-feedback SIR epidemic model, in which the infection rate depends in feedback on the fractions of susceptible and infected agents, respectively. The considered model allows one to account for endogenous adaptation…
Mathematical modelling of the spread of epidemics has been an interesting challenge in the field of epidemiology. The SIR Model proposed by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927 is a prototypical model of epidemiology. However, it has its…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…