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Tennis is one of the world's biggest and most popular sports. Multiple researchers have, with limited success, modeled the outcome of matches using probability modelling or machine learning approaches. The approach presented here predicts…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-06-09 Martin Illum , Hans Christian Bechsøfft Mikkelsen , Emil Hovad

Tennis, like other games and sports, is governed by rules, including the rules that determine the winner of points, games, sets, and matches. If the two players are equally skilled -- each has the same probability of winning a point when…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-14 Steven J. Brams , Mehmet S. Ismail , D. Marc Kilgour

With the aid of mathematical modelling (basic tool is the random walk with absorbing barriers) we derive subsequent formulas to study the effect of different versions of possible rules. For different rules the probability of winning a game,…

其他统计学 · 统计学 2018-01-30 G. Szigeti

This paper discusses match result prediction ability of ATP ranking points, which is official ranking points for men's professional tennis players. The structure of overall ATP World Tour and the ranking point attribution system leads that…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-05-18 Eiji Konaka

In this paper we analyse tiebreak results from some tennis players in order to investigate whether we are able to identify some strategy in this crucial moment of the game. We compared the observed results with a binomial distribution…

科普物理 · 物理学 2016-06-20 I. Y. Kawashima , O. Helene , M. T. Yamashita , R. S. Marques de Carvalho

This paper investigates the Tennis Momentum Model (TMM), which aims to enhance the understanding of match dynamics by integrating key factors such as efficiency, historical scoring probabilities, and real-time scoring data. The model is…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Jackson Graves , Daniel X. Guo , Ridge Shepherd , Alexander Young

Individual sports competitions provide a natural setting for examining the relative importance of talent and luck/chance in achieving success. The belief that success is primarily due to individual abilities and hard work rather than…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2023-11-14 Chiara Zappalá , Alessio Emanuele Biondo , Alessandro Pluchino , Andrea Rapisarda

In the light of the need to achieve a ranking which is understood by all tennis supporters, the ATP ranking is exposed to constant complaints from players and at the same time exposes new players to be benefited with a good tournament to be…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2017-12-01 Alex Aronson

Ranking is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the human society. By clicking the web pages of Forbes, you may find all kinds of rankings, such as world's most powerful people, world's richest people, top-paid tennis stars, and so on and so forth.…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-06-03 Weibing Deng , Wei Li , Xu Cai , Alain Bulou , Qiuping A. Wang

From the viewpoint of networks, a ranking system for players or teams in sports is equivalent to a centrality measure for sports networks, whereby a directed link represents the result of a single game. Previously proposed network-based…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2012-12-07 Shun Motegi , Naoki Masuda

Who are the most significant players in the history of men tennis? Is the official ATP ranking system fair in evaluating players scores? Which players deserved the most contemplation looking at their match records? Which players have never…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2018-04-24 Umberto Michieli

We establish a general formula for the distribution of the score in table tennis. We use this formula to derive the probability distribution (and hence the expectation and variance) of the number of rallies necessary to achieve any given…

应用统计 · 统计学 2011-10-02 Yves Dominicy , Christophe Ley , Yvik Swan

Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2016-06-17 Leto Peel , Aaron Clauset

We show that information on the first server influences the expected total number of games and margin in a tennis match under the standard assumption that each player's serve point win probability remains constant, and identify the exact…

概率论 · 数学 2026-05-07 Ali Mohammadi

Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-09 Zijian Gao , Amanda Kowalczyk

A scoring system is a simple decision model that checks a set of features, adds a certain number of points to a total score for each feature that is satisfied, and finally makes a decision by comparing the total score to a threshold.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-01 Jonas Hanselle , Stefan Heid , Johannes Fürnkranz , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper represents an analysis on the momentum of tennis match. And due to Generalization performance of it, it can be helpful in constructing a system to predict the result of sports game and analyze the performance of player based on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-23 Jingdi Lei , Tianqi Kang , Yuluan Cao , Shiwei Ren

We study how individuals trade off outcome ("what") and process ("how") utility in high-stakes strategic decisions, namely professional tennis. Using optimality conditions and the second-service rule, we derive a sufficient condition for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-25 Arnaud Dupuy

We consider a matching problem, which is meaningful in team competitions, as well as in information theory, recommender systems, and assignment problems. In the competitions which we study, each competitor in a team order plays a match with…

计算机科学与博弈论 · 计算机科学 2026-05-21 Haris Aziz , Jiarui Gan , Grzegorz Lisowski , Ali Pourmiri

In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-07-14 Manar D. Samad , Sumen Sen
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