相关论文: Modeling Age-Adjusted Mortality in the United Stat…

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of ambient ozone levels and temperatures which, in turn, may impact public health. Much research has focused on the effect of short-term ozone exposures on mortality and morbidity while…

New models for evolutionary processes of mutation accumulation allow hypotheses about the age-specificity of mutational effects to be translated into predictions of heterogeneous population hazard functions. We apply these models to…

Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…

Machine-learning-based age estimation has received lots of attention. Traditional age estimation mechanism focuses estimation age error, but ignores that there is a deviation between the estimated age and real age due to disease.…

In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…

In epidemiological studies of air pollution and public health, estimating the health impact of exposure to air pollution may be hindered by the unknown functional form of the exposure-outcome association and by unmeasured confounding…

Accurate and precise estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) are an important health summary for countries. However, full survival curves allow us to better understand the pattern of mortality in children under five. Modern…

A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…

This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and its various updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID19 for each state…

Smoking is one of the preventable threats to human health and is a major risk factor for lung cancer, upper aero-digestive cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Estimating and forecasting the smoking attributable fraction (SAF)…

We evaluated the sensitivity of estimated PM2.5 and NO2 health impacts to varying key input parameters and assumptions including: 1) the spatial scale at which impacts are estimated, 2) using either a single concentration-response function…

The COVID-19 pandemic so far has caused huge negative impacts on different areas all over the world, and the United States (US) is one of the most affected countries. In this paper, we use methods from the functional data analysis to look…

This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework features three states: (1) a baseline state that captures…

The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, ranging from life insurance valuation to optimal lifetime decision-making. Existing approaches, such as mortality laws and factor-based models, often fall short…

Mortality is an instrument of natural selection. Evolutionary motivated theories imply its irreversibility and life history dependence. This is inconsistent with mortality data for protected populations. Accurate analysis yields mortality…

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts which reduced opioid prescribing rates by nearly 45\% between 2011 and 2021, opioid-related overdose deaths more than tripled during…

We present a modified age-structured SIR model based on known patterns of social contact and distancing measures within Washington, USA. We find that population age-distribution has a significant effect on disease spread and mortality rate,…

In this paper, we compare semiparametric and parametric model adjustments for cancer mortality in breast and cervical cancer and prostate and lung cancer in men, according to age and period of death. Semiparametric models were adjusted for…

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume…

We have simulated demographic changes in the human population using the Penna microscopic model, based on the simple Monte Carlo method. The results of simulations have shown that during a few generations changes in the genetic pool of a…