相关论文: Causal Inference in Energy Demand Prediction

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Electronic devices exhibit changes in electrical resistance over time at varying rates, depending on the configuration of certain components. Since measuring overall electrical resistance requires partial disassembly, only a limited number…

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

Inferring causal relationships from observed data is an important task, yet it becomes challenging when the data is subject to various external interferences. Most of these interferences are the additional effects of external factors on…

Nonlinear machine-learning models are increasingly used to discover causal relationships in time-series data, yet the interpretation of their outputs remains poorly understood. In particular, causal scores produced by regularized neural…

Machine learning is the science of discovering statistical dependencies in data, and the use of those dependencies to perform predictions. During the last decade, machine learning has made spectacular progress, surpassing human performance…

Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process offers a promising way to mitigate these challenges by…

Models simulating household energy demand based on different occupant and household types and their behavioral patterns have received increasing attention over the last years due the need to better understand fundamental characteristics…

Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…

Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of…

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…

Statistical science (as opposed to mathematical statistics) involves far more than probability theory, for it requires realistic causal models of data generators - even for purely descriptive goals. Statistical decision theory requires more…

Research in Cognitive Science suggests that humans understand and represent knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In addition to observations, they can rely on experimenting and counterfactual reasoning -- i.e. referring to…

Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…

Predicting undesirable events during the execution of a business process instance provides the process participants with an opportunity to intervene and keep the process aligned with its goals. Few approaches for tackling this challenge…

We look more carefully at the modeling of causality using structural equations. It is clear that the structural equations can have a major impact on the conclusions we draw about causality. In particular, the choice of variables and their…

For a given causal question, it is important to efficiently decide which causal inference method to use for a given dataset. This is challenging because causal methods typically rely on complex and difficult-to-verify assumptions, and…

We develop a time series model to forecast weekly peak power demand for three main states of Australia for a yearly time-scale, and show the crucial role of environmental factors in improving the forecasts. More precisely, we construct a…

When inferring the causal effect of one variable on another from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers as well as lay decision makers is to control for some set of exogenous confounding variables. Choosing an…

The question to what extent climate change is responsible for extreme weather events has been at the forefront of public and scholarly discussion for years. Proponents of the "risk-based" approach to attribution attempt to give an…