相关论文: Causal Inference in Energy Demand Prediction

This paper describes a Bayesian method for combining an arbitrary mixture of observational and experimental data in order to learn causal Bayesian networks. Observational data are passively observed. Experimental data, such as that produced…

In causal inference, and specifically in the \textit{Causes of Effects} problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and so how to assess the so-called {\em probability of…

Prediction invariance of causal models under heterogeneous settings has been exploited by a number of recent methods for causal discovery, typically focussing on recovering the causal parents of a target variable of interest. Existing…

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…

There is a brief description of the probabilistic causal graph model for representing, reasoning with, and learning causal structure using Bayesian networks. It is then argued that this model is closely related to how humans reason with and…

Identifying causal relationships from observational time series data is a key problem in disciplines such as climate science or neuroscience, where experiments are often not possible. Data-driven causal inference is challenging since…

Many regulatory and analytic problems require that a prohibited variable influence a decision only through a designated allowable channel -- a conditional-independence requirement that arises in path-specific fairness, the handling of…

This study compares the performance of a causal and a predictive model in modeling travel mode choice in three neighborhoods in Chicago. A causal discovery algorithm and a causal inference technique were used to extract the causal…

Causal inference from observational data can be viewed as a missing data problem arising from a hypothetical population-scale randomized trial matched to the observational study. This links a target trial protocol with a corresponding…

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present…

Bayesian networks are powerful statistical models to study the probabilistic relationships among set random variables with major applications in disease modeling and prediction. Here, we propose a continuous time Bayesian network with…

Predictive maintenance in manufacturing environments presents a challenging optimization problem characterized by extreme cost asymmetry, where missed failures incur costs roughly fifty times higher than false alarms. Predictive maintenance…

Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of…

The operation of power systems is affected by diverse technical, economic and social factors. Social behaviour determines load patterns, electricity markets regulate the generation and weather-dependent renewables introduce power…

Data-driven societal event forecasting methods exploit relevant historical information to predict future events. These methods rely on historical labeled data and cannot accurately predict events when data are limited or of poor quality.…

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine…

The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…