相关论文: Causal Inference in Energy Demand Prediction

Classical causal and statistical inference methods typically assume the observed data consists of independent realizations. However, in many applications this assumption is inappropriate due to a network of dependences between units in the…

We examine the household-specific effects of the introduction of Time-of-Use (TOU) electricity pricing schemes. Using a causal forest (Athey and Imbens, 2016; Wager and Athey, 2018; Athey et al., 2019), we consider the association between…

Causal systems often exhibit variations of the underlying causal mechanisms between the variables of the system. Often, these changes are driven by different environments or internal states in which the system operates, and we refer to…

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

The relationship between electricity demand and variables such as economic activity and weather patterns is well established. However, this paper explores the connection between electricity demand and social aspects. It further embeds…

In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are…

We apply an empirical, data-driven approach for describing crop yield as a function of monthly temperature and precipitation by employing generative probabilistic models with parameters determined through Bayesian inference. Our approach is…

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

The past two decades have seen a growing interest in combining causal information, commonly represented using causal graphs, with machine learning models. Probability trees provide a simple yet powerful alternative representation of causal…

Causal and counterfactual reasoning are emerging directions in data science that allow us to reason about hypothetical scenarios. This is particularly useful in fields like environmental and ecological sciences, where interventional data…

Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…

We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed…

Modeling buildings' heat dynamics is a complex process which depends on various factors including weather, building thermal capacity, insulation preservation, and residents' behavior. Gray-box models offer a causal inference of those…

Whether a variable is the cause of another, or simply associated with it, is often an important scientific question. Causal Inference is the name associated with the body of techniques for addressing that question in a statistical setting.…

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning multiple decades) should be considered. At the same time,…