相关论文: Assessment of loan losses after default

Risk-averse investors often wish to exclude stocks from their portfolios that bear high credit risk, which is a measure of a firm's likelihood of bankruptcy. This risk is commonly estimated by constructing signals from quarterly accounting…

Accidental damage is a typical component of motor insurance claim. Modeling of this nature generally involves analysis of past claim history and different characteristics of the insured objects and the policyholders. Generalized linear…

Leasing is a popular channel to market new cars. Pricing a leasing contract is complicated because the leasing rate embodies an expectation of the residual value of the car after contract expiration. To aid lessors in their pricing…

Building defect prediction models based on online learning can enhance prediction accuracy. It continuously rebuilds a new prediction model when adding a new data point. However, predicting a module as "non-defective" (i.e., negative…

In this article, we apply non-convex regularization methods in order to obtain stable estimation of loss development factors in insurance claims reserving. Among the non-convex regularization methods, we focus on the use of the log-adjusted…

We consider financial networks, where banks are connected by contracts such as debts or credit default swaps. We study the clearing problem in these systems: we want to know which banks end up in a default, and what portion of their…

Accurately predicting machine failures in advance can decrease maintenance cost and help allocate maintenance resources more efficiently. Logistic regression was applied to predict machine state 24 hours in the future given the current…

In this paper, we introduce a model that adds a non-linearity to discounting: the discounting factor may depend on the notional (i.e., discounted values are no longer linear in the notional). In the first part of the paper, we provide a…

We present a general framework for the estimation of corporate default based on a firm's capital structure, when its assets are assumed to follow a pure jump L\'evy processes; this setup provides a natural extension to usual default metrics…

This paper provides sufficient conditions for the time of bankruptcy (of a company or a state) for being a totally inaccessible stopping time and provides the explicit computation of its compensator in a framework where the flow of market…

We consider a financial market with a stock exposed to a counterparty risk inducing a drop in the price, and which can still be traded after this default time. We use a default-density modeling approach, and address in this incomplete…

We propose a curvature-based approach for choosing good values for the time-delay parameter $\tau$ in delay reconstructions. The idea is based on the effects of the delay on the geometry of the reconstructions. If the delay is chosen too…

We design a system for risk-analyzing and pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit loans. The rapid development of credit lending business for consumers heightens the need for trading portfolios formed by overdue loans as a…

In this article, a failure mode dependent and thermodynamically consistent continuum damage model with polynomial-based damage hardening functions is proposed for continuum damage modeling of laminated composite panels. The damage model…

In the context of time-series forecasting, we propose a LSTM-based recurrent neural network architecture and loss function that enhance the stability of the predictions. In particular, the loss function penalizes the model, not only on the…

Credit risk assessment of a company is commonly conducted by utilizing financial ratios that are derived from its financial statements. However, this approach may not fully encompass other significant aspects of a company. We propose the…

We present a multilayer network model for credit risk assessment. Our model accounts for multiple connections between borrowers (such as their geographic location and their economic activity) and allows for explicitly modelling the…

Many estimators of the average effect of a treatment on an outcome require estimation of the propensity score, the outcome regression, or both. It is often beneficial to utilize flexible techniques such as semiparametric regression or…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) using a regression procedure to fit relationships between predictor and target variables are widely used in automobile insurance data. Here, in the process of ratemaking and in order to compute the premiums…

Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a popular framework for estimating a causal effect in settings where treatment is assigned if an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. We consider estimation and inference in the common…