相关论文: Trading with the Devil: Risk and Return in Foundat…

A multivariate quantile regression model with a factor structure is proposed to study data with many responses of interest. The factor structure is allowed to vary with the quantile levels, which makes our framework more flexible than the…

Representation learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm for extracting valuable latent features from complex, high-dimensional data. In financial domains, learning informative representations for assets can be used for tasks like sector…

We introduce a simple but effective method for managing risk in model-based reinforcement learning with trajectory sampling that involves probabilistic safety constraints and balancing of optimism in the face of epistemic uncertainty and…

In the online portfolio optimization framework, existing learning algorithms generate strategies that yield significantly poorer cumulative wealth compared to the best constant rebalancing portfolio in hindsight, despite being consistent in…

Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the…

We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in…

Asset allocation using reinforcement learning has advantages such as flexibility in goal setting and utilization of various information. However, existing asset allocation methods do not consider the following viewpoints in solving the…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic frameworks, in which prompts trigger complex tool-based analysis in pursuit of a goal. While these frameworks have shown promise across multiple domains including in finance,…

Trading a financial asset pushes its price as well as the prices of other assets, a phenomenon known as cross-impact. We consider a general class of kernel-based cross-impact models and investigate suitable parameterisations for trading…

Machine learning in asset pricing typically predicts expected returns as point estimates, ignoring uncertainty. We develop new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns obtained from neural networks. We show…

We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling…

We build a general model for pricing defaultable claims. In addition to the usual absence of arbitrage assumption, we assume that one defaultable asset (at least) looses value when the default occurs. We prove that under this assumption, in…

In the finance sector, studies focused on anomaly detection are often associated with time-series and transactional data analytics. In this paper, we lay out the opportunities for applying anomaly and deviation detection methods to text…

Decision-making pipelines are generally characterized by tradeoffs among various risk functions. It is often desirable to manage such tradeoffs in a data-adaptive manner. As we demonstrate, if this is done naively, state-of-the art…

A new chaotic financial system is proposed by considering ethics involvement in a four-dimensional financial system with market confidence. A five-dimensional conformable derivative financial system is presented by introducing conformable…

A foundation model is a machine learning model trained on a large and diverse set of data, typically using self-supervised learning-based pre-training techniques, that can be adapted to various downstream tasks. However, current research on…

In this paper, we consider the chance constrained based uncertain portfolio optimization problem in which the uncertain parameters are stochastic in nature. The primary goal of the work is to formulate the uncertain problem into a…

Traditionally, traders and quantitative analysts address alpha decay by manually crafting formulaic alphas, mathematical expressions that identify patterns or signals in financial data, through domain expertise and trial-and-error. This…

Measuring model risk is required by regulators on financial and insurance markets. We separate model risk into parameter estimation risk and model specification risk, and we propose expected shortfall type model risk measures applied to…

We investigate the impact of available information on the estimation of the default probability within a generalized structural model for credit risk. The traditional structural model where default is triggered when the value of the firm's…