相关论文: A Bivariate DAR($1$) model for ordinal time series

The objective of transfer learning is to enhance estimation and inference in a target data by leveraging knowledge gained from additional sources. Recent studies have explored transfer learning for independent observations in complex,…

We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatio-temporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, i.e. SARAR(1,1), by exploiting the…

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

In this paper, we present methods of obtaining single moments of order statistics arising from posibly dependent and non-identically distributed discrete random variables. We derive exact and approximate formulas convenient for numerical…

Time delay estimation plays a critical role in control, stabilization and state estimation of many practical system with time delay. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate delay for discrete time linear multiple-input…

We present a nonparametric framework to model a short sequence of probability distributions that vary both due to underlying effects of sequential progression and confounding noise. To distinguish between these two types of variation and…

In this work we introduce the class of unit-Weibull Autoregressive Moving Average models for continuous random variables taking values in $(0,1)$. The proposed model is an observation driven one, for which, conditionally on a set of…

We consider the problem of modeling the dependence among many time series. We build high dimensional time-varying copula models by combining pair-copula constructions (PCC) with stochastic autoregressive copula (SCAR) models to capture…

Models characterized by autoregressive structure and random coefficients are powerful tools for the analysis of high-frequency, high-dimensional and volatile time series. The available literature on such models is broad, but also sectorial,…

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…

In finance, economics and many other fields, observations in a matrix form are often generated over time. For example, a set of key economic indicators are regularly reported in different countries every quarter. The observations at each…

Modern approaches to causal modeling give a central role to interventions, which require the active input of an observer and introduces an explicit `causal arrow of time'. Causal models typically adopt a mechanistic interpretation,…

This paper presents an approach to modeling progressive event-history data when the overall objective is prediction based on time-dependent covariates. This approach does not model the hazard function directly. Instead, it models the…

We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of…

The nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model provides an appealing framework to analyze multivariate time series obtained from a nonlinear dynamical system. However, the innovation (or error), which plays a key role by driving the…

We introduce a multivariate hidden Markov model to jointly cluster time-series observations with different support, i.e. circular and linear. Relying on the general projected normal distribution, our approach allows for bimodal and/or…

We propose a novel Bayesian model framework for discrete ordinal and count data based on conditional transformations of the responses. The conditional transformation function is estimated from the data in conjunction with an a priori chosen…

High-dimensional financial time series often exhibit complex dependence relations driven by both common market structures and latent connections among assets. To capture these characteristics, this paper proposes Factor-Driven Network…

This paper introduces sparse dynamic chain graph models for network inference in high dimensional non-Gaussian time series data. The proposed method parametrized by a precision matrix that encodes the intra time-slice conditional…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…