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This paper introduces an innovative Bayesian machine learning algorithm to draw interpretable inference on heterogeneous causal effects in the presence of imperfect compliance (e.g., under an irregular assignment mechanism). We show,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-02 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Kristof De-Witte , Giorgio Gnecco

Predicting user influence in social networks is a critical problem, and hypergraphs, as a prevalent higher-order modeling approach, provide new perspectives for this task. However, the absence of explicit cascade or infection probability…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2025-08-22 Su-Su Zhang , JinFeng Xie , Yang Chen , Min Gao , Cong Li , Chuang Liu , Xiu-Xiu Zhan

The goal of Bayesian deep learning is to provide uncertainty quantification via the posterior distribution. However, exact inference over the weight space is computationally intractable due to the ultra-high dimensions of the neural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-25 Xiongwen Ke , Yanan Fan

The Influence Function (IF) is a widely used technique for assessing the impact of individual training samples on model predictions. However, existing IF methods often fail to provide reliable influence estimates in deep neural networks,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-02 Xichen Ye , Yifan Wu , Weizhong Zhang , Cheng Jin , Yifan Chen

We consider the nonparametric multivariate isotonic regression problem, where the regression function is assumed to be nondecreasing with respect to each predictor. Our goal is to construct a Bayesian credible interval for the function…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-24 Kang Wang , Subhashis Ghosal

Explosive growth in data and availability of cheap computing resources have sparked increasing interest in Big learning, an emerging subfield that studies scalable machine learning algorithms, systems, and applications with Big Data.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-03-02 Jun Zhu , Jianfei Chen , Wenbo Hu , Bo Zhang

We consider optimization of composite objective functions, i.e., of the form $f(x)=g(h(x))$, where $h$ is a black-box derivative-free expensive-to-evaluate function with vector-valued outputs, and $g$ is a cheap-to-evaluate real-valued…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-06-05 Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier

Branching Time Active Inference (Champion et al., 2021b,a) is a framework proposing to look at planning as a form of Bayesian model expansion. Its root can be found in Active Inference (Friston et al., 2016; Da Costa et al., 2020; Champion…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-15 Théophile Champion , Marek Grześ , Howard Bowman

Spatiotemporal datasets, which consist of spatially-referenced time series, are ubiquitous in diverse applications, such as air pollution monitoring, disease tracking, and cloud-demand forecasting. As the scale of modern datasets increases,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-28 Feras Saad , Jacob Burnim , Colin Carroll , Brian Patton , Urs Köster , Rif A. Saurous , Matthew Hoffman

Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-22 Max Goplerud

Deep neural network ensembles are powerful tools for uncertainty quantification, which have recently been re-interpreted from a Bayesian perspective. However, current methods inadequately leverage second-order information of the loss…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Klemens Flöge , Mohammed Abdul Moeed , Vincent Fortuin

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of parametric Bayes estimators under a broad class of loss functions that extend beyond the classical translation-invariant setting. To this end, we develop a unified theoretical framework for loss…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-16 Robin Requadt , Housen Li , Axel Munk

We introduce efficient MCMC algorithms for Bayesian inference for single-factor models with correlated residuals where the residuals' distribution is a Gaussian graphical model. We call this family of models single-factor graphical models.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-17 David Marcano , Adrian Dobra

We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-27 Trung Trinh , Samuel Kaski , Markus Heinonen

We derive ensembles of decision trees through a nonparametric Bayesian model, allowing us to view random forests as samples from a posterior distribution. This insight provides large gains in interpretability, and motivates a class of…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-05-19 Matt Taddy , Chun-Sheng Chen , Jun Yu , Mitch Wyle

Function-space priors in Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a more intuitive approach to embedding beliefs directly into the model's output, thereby enhancing regularization, uncertainty quantification, and risk-aware decision-making.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-13 Marcin Sendera , Amin Sorkhei , Tomasz Kuśmierczyk

We introduce a new Bayesian multi-class support vector machine by formulating a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-class hinge loss in the form of a location-scale mixture of Gaussians. We derive a variational-inference-based training objective…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-06-08 Martin Wistuba , Ambrish Rawat

In the field of reinforcement learning there has been recent progress towards safety and high-confidence bounds on policy performance. However, to our knowledge, no practical methods exist for determining high-confidence policy performance…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2018-06-26 Daniel S. Brown , Scott Niekum

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are a principled approach to modeling predictive uncertainties in deep learning, which are important in safety-critical applications. Since exact Bayesian inference over the weights in a BNN is intractable,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-01-02 Tim Z. Xiao , Weiyang Liu , Robert Bamler

In recent years, neural networks have revolutionized various domains, yet challenges such as hyperparameter tuning and overfitting remain significant hurdles. Bayesian neural networks offer a framework to address these challenges by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-16 Hayk Amirkhanian , Marco F. Huber