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State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

We aim to construct a class of learning algorithms that are of practical value to applied researchers in fields such as biostatistics, epidemiology and econometrics, where the need to learn from incompletely observed information is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-09 Alicia Curth , Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Recent work has uncovered close links between between classical reinforcement learning algorithms, Bayesian filtering, and Active Inference which lets us understand value functions in terms of Bayesian posteriors. An alternative, but less…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-07-21 Beren Millidge , Christopher L Buckley

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have received an increased interest in the last years. In BNNs, a complete posterior distribution of the unknown weight and bias parameters of the network is produced during the training stage. This…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-14 Yunshi Huang , Emilie Chouzenoux , Victor Elvira , Jean-Christophe Pesquet

Bayesian network classifiers provide a feasible solution to tabular data classification, with a number of merits like high time and memory efficiency, and great explainability. However, due to the parameter explosion and data sparsity…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-18 Huan Zhang , Daokun Zhang , Kexin Meng , Geoffrey I. Webb

Variational inference often struggles with the posterior geometry exhibited by complex hierarchical Bayesian models. Recent advances in flow-based variational families and Variationally Inferred Parameters (VIP) each address aspects of this…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-06 Joohwan Ko , Justin Domke

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-30 Zhijie Deng , Yucen Luo , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

We challenge the longstanding assumption that the mean-field approximation for variational inference in Bayesian neural networks is severely restrictive, and show this is not the case in deep networks. We prove several results indicating…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-11 Sebastian Farquhar , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal

Mechanistic models of single-neuron dynamics have been extensively studied in computational neuroscience. However, identifying which models can quantitatively reproduce empirically measured data has been challenging. We propose to overcome…

The formalism of quantum estimation theory with a specific focus on classical data postprocessing is applied to a two-level system driven by an external gyrating magnetic field. We employed both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-05-05 Chun Kit Dennis Law , József Zsolt Bernád

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-06 Sanmitra Ghosh , Paul J. Birrell , Daniela De Angelis

Inverse problems are ubiquitous because they formalize the integration of data with mathematical models. In many scientific applications the forward model is expensive to evaluate, and adjoint computations are difficult to employ; in this…

动力系统 · 数学 2021-11-05 G. A. Pavliotis , A. M. Stuart , U. Vaes

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-04-25 Steven Winter , Trevor Campbell , Lizhen Lin , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

This paper introduces a direct differentiation-based framework that unifies the derivation of influence functions across parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric models. We show that the Riesz representer of the functional derivative…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-04 Xiye Yang , Ruonan Xu

Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off…

We investigate the use of a non-parametric independence measure, the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), as a loss-function for learning robust regression and classification models. This loss-function encourages learning models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-14 Daniel Greenfeld , Uri Shalit

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

The swift progression of machine learning (ML) has not gone unnoticed in the realm of statistical mechanics. ML techniques have attracted attention by the classical density-functional theory (DFT) community, as they enable discovery of…

Obtaining heteroscedastic predictive uncertainties from a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is vital to many applications. Often, heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties are learned as outputs of the BNN in addition to the predictive means,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-01 David J. Schodt , Ryan Brown , Michael Merritt , Samuel Park , Delsin Menolascino , Mark A. Peot

There is increasing interest in learning how human brain networks vary as a function of a continuous trait, but flexible and efficient procedures to accomplish this goal are limited. We develop a Bayesian semiparametric model, which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-02 Lu Wang , Daniele Durante , Rex E. Jung , David B. Dunson