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We extend Fisher's randomization test (FRT) to test conditional independence between observed outcomes and treatments given covariates in both randomized experiments and observational studies, with no restriction on the variable type of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Zhen Zhong

Estimating the treatment effect within network structures is a key focus in online controlled experiments, particularly for social media platforms. We investigate a scenario where the unit-level outcome of interest comprises a series of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-28 Yilin Li , Lu Deng , Yong Wang , Wang Miao

Robust decision making involves making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and is often used in critical domains such as healthcare, supply chains, and finance. Causality plays a crucial role in decision-making as it predicts the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-23 Saideep Nannapaneni , Joseph Sakaya , Kyle Caron , Pedro HM Albuquerque , Zaid Tashman

We study the estimation of causal effects on group-level parameters identified from microdata (e.g., child penalties). We demonstrate that standard one-step methods (such as pooled OLS and IV regressions) are generally inconsistent due to…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-13 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Kazuharu Yanagimoto , Tom Zohar

We consider how increasingly available observational data can be used to improve the design of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We seek to design a prospective RCT, with the intent of using an Empirical Bayes estimator to shrink the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-15 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Luke Miratrix

Continuous outcome measurements truncated by death present a challenge for the estimation of unbiased treatment effects in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One way to deal with such situations is to estimate the survivor average causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-02 Stefanie von Felten , Chiara Vanetta , Christoph M. Rüegger , Sven Wellmann , Leonhard Held

Analysts often use data-driven approaches to supplement their substantive knowledge when selecting covariates for causal effect estimation. Multiple variable selection procedures tailored for causal effect estimation have been devised in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-27 Denis Talbot , Claudia Beaudoin

In clinical follow-up studies with a time-to-event end point, the difference in the restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a suitable substitute for the hazard ratio (HR). However, the RMST only measures the survival of patients over a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-27 Zijing Yang , Chengfeng Zhang , Yawen Hou , Zheng Chen

We propose a new estimator for average causal effects of a binary treatment with panel data in settings with general treatment patterns. Our approach augments the popular two-way-fixed-effects specification with unit-specific weights that…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-03-06 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens , Lihua Lei , Xiaoman Luo

In longitudinal studies using routinely collected data, such as electronic health records (EHRs), patients tend to have more measurements when they are unwell; this informative observation pattern may lead to bias. While semi-parametric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-02 Rose Garrett , Brian Feldman , Eleanor Pullenayegum

This note introduces a doubly robust (DR) estimator for regression discontinuity (RD) designs. RD designs provide a quasi-experimental framework for estimating treatment effects, where treatment assignment depends on whether a running…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-28 Masahiro Kato

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for informing treatment guidelines, but results may not generalize to real-world populations. Generalizability is hindered by distributional differences in baseline covariates and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-03 Rachael K. Ross , Ivan Diaz , Amy J. Pitts , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Kara E. Rudolph

Random-effects meta-analysis summarizes heterogeneous trials by estimating an average effect over the observed evidence base, which may not represent the clinically relevant target population. In cardiovascular medicine, treatment effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-22 Ibrahim Halil Tanboga

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

Companies offering web services routinely run randomized online experiments to estimate the causal impact associated with the adoption of new features and policies on key performance metrics of interest. These experiments are used to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-13 Lorenzo Masoero , Doug Hains , James McQueen

This paper presents a randomization-based framework for estimating causal effects under interference between units, motivated by challenges that arise in analyzing experiments on social networks. The framework integrates three components:…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-06-21 Peter M. Aronow , Cyrus Samii

It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-28 Bo Liu , Laine Thomas , Rury R. Holman , Fan Li

Instrumental variable (IV) methods allow us the opportunity to address unmeasured confounding in causal inference. However, most IV methods are only applicable to discrete or continuous outcomes with very few IV methods for censored…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-30 Youjin Lee , Edward H. Kennedy , Nandita Mitra

Evaluating the performance of an ongoing policy plays a vital role in many areas such as medicine and economics, to provide crucial instructions on the early-stop of the online experiment and timely feedback from the environment. Policy…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-05 Ye Shen , Hengrui Cai , Rui Song

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-21 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela