相关论文: Joint Reproduction Number and Spatial Connectivity…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
The COVID-19 pandemic has had worldwide devastating effects on human lives, highlighting the need for tools to predict its development. Dynamics of such public-health threats can often be efficiently analysed through simple models that help…
A dynamical epidemic model optimized using genetic algorithm and cross validation method to overcome the overfitting problem is proposed. The cross validation procedure is applied so that available data are split into a training subset used…
The effect of diffusion rates on the basic reproduction number of a general compartmental reaction-diffusion epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment is considered. It is shown when the diffusion rates tend to zero, the limit of the…
In this report we fit a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to describe the Mexican COVID-19 epidemic. We obtain two epidemiological measures: the number of infections and the reproduction number. Estimations are based on death…
Spatial spread of infectious diseases among populations via the mobility of humans is highly stochastic and heterogeneous. Accurate forecast/mining of the spread process is often hard to be achieved by using statistical or mechanical…
We present "interoperability" as a guiding framework for statistical modelling to assist policy makers asking multiple questions using diverse datasets in the face of an evolving pandemic response. Interoperability provides an important set…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, different countries, regions, and communities constructed various epidemic models to evaluate spreading behaviors and assist in making mitigation policies. Model uncertainties, introduced by complex…
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has led to a surge in interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. Such models are usually defined as compartmental models, in which the population under study is divided into compartments…
The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its accurate estimation in real time. We propose a nowcasting…
Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…
There is growing recognition in both the experimental and modelling literature of the importance of spatial structure to the dynamics of viral infections in tissues. Aided by the evolution of computing power and motivated by recent…
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
An important issue in theoretical epidemiology is the epidemic threshold phenomenon, which specify the conditions for an epidemic to grow or die out. In standard (mean-field-like) compartmental models the concept of the basic reproductive…
Since the first coronavirus case was identified in the U.S. on Jan. 21, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of COVID-19. This infectious respiratory disease has spread rapidly across more than 3000 counties and 50…