相关论文: Joint Reproduction Number and Spatial Connectivity…
The emergence of infectious disease COVID-19 has challenged and changed the world in an unprecedented manner. The integration of wireless networks with edge computing (namely wireless edge networks) brings opportunities to address this…
A simplified method to compute $R_t$, the Effective Reproduction Number, is presented. The method relates the value of $R_t$ to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition $R_t = 1$ corresponds…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
Monitoring the evolution of the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical step in sanitary policy design. Yet, the assessment of the pandemic intensity within the pandemic period remains a challenging task because of the limited quality of…
During the first months, the Covid-19 pandemic has required most countries to implement complex sequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the aim of controlling the transmission of the virus in the population. To be able to take…
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…
Estimating population-level prevalence and transmission dynamics of wildlife pathogens can be challenging, partly because surveillance data is sparse, detection-driven, and unevenly sequenced. Using highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
As the interactions between people increases, the impending menace of COVID-19 outbreaks materialize, and there is an inclination to apply lockdowns. In this context, it is essential to have easy-to-use indicators for people to use as a…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a wide range of epidemiological modelling approaches have been used to predict the effective reproduction number, R(t), and other COVID-19 related measures such as the daily rate of exponential growth, r(t).…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth.Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is crucial for policy makers and public health officials who need to make informed decisions…
As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, reliable prediction plays an important role for policy making. The classical infectious disease model SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) is a compact yet simplistic temporal model. The…
We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…
Spatio-temporal models for infection counts generally follow themes of the broader disease mapping literature, but may need to address specific features of spatio-temporal infection data including considerable time fluctuations (with…