相关论文: Modelling peaks over thresholds in panel data: a t…

Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…

We consider penalized regression models under a unified framework where the particular method is determined by the form of the penalty term. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that incorporates both sparse and dense settings and show how…

Metocean extremes often vary systematically with covariates such as direction and season. In this work, we present non-stationary models for the size and rate of occurrence of peaks over threshold of metocean variables with respect to one-…

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

Leveraging the recently emerging geometric approach to multivariate extremes and the flexibility of normalising flows on the hypersphere, we propose a principled deep-learning-based methodology that enables accurate joint tail extrapolation…

Tabular regression is a well-studied problem with numerous industrial applications, yet most existing approaches focus on point estimation, often leading to overconfident predictions. This issue is particularly critical in industrial…

Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

Modelling of precipitation, including extremes, is important for hydrological and agricultural applications. Traditionally, because of large sample properties for data over a large threshold value, generalised Pareto (GP) distributions are…

Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…

This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel considered in…

A generative modeling framework is proposed that combines diffusion models and manifold learning to efficiently sample data densities on manifolds. The approach utilizes Diffusion Maps to uncover possible low-dimensional underlying (latent)…

While network science has become an indispensable tool for studying complex systems, the conventional use of pairwise links often shows limitations in describing high-order interactions properly. Hypergraphs, where each edge can connect…

This paper is concerned with high-dimensional panel data models where the number of regressors can be much larger than the sample size. Under the assumption that the true parameter vector is sparse we propose a panel-Lasso estimator and…

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

While a substantial literature on structural break change point analysis exists for univariate time series, research on large panel data models has not been as extensive. In this paper, a novel method for estimating panel models with…

We investigate the parameter estimation of regression models with fixed group effects, when the group variable is missing while group related variables are available. This problem involves clustering to infer the missing group variable…

The assumption of group heterogeneity has become popular in panel data models. We develop a constrained Bayesian grouped estimator that exploits researchers' prior beliefs on groups in a form of pairwise constraints, indicating whether a…

The behavior of extreme observations is well-understood for time series or spatial data, but little is known if the data generating process is a structural causal model (SCM). We study the behavior of extremes in this model class, both for…

The paper introduces a new regression model designed for situations where both the response and covariates are non-stationary extremes. This method is specifically designed for situations where both the response variable and covariates are…

The paper introduces structured machine learning regressions for heavy-tailed dependent panel data potentially sampled at different frequencies. We focus on the sparse-group LASSO regularization. This type of regularization can take…