相关论文: Actuarial Analysis of an Infectious Disease Insura…

We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…

Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…

We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…

We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…

The infections and fatalities due to SARS-CoV-2 virus for cases specific to India have been studied using a deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dead (SEIRD) compartmental model. One of the most significant epidemiological…

Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of…

The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are…

In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model…

Compartmental epidemiological models categorize individuals based on their disease status, such as the SEIRD model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead). These models determine the parameters that influence the magnitude of an…

Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

We propose an integral model describing an epidemic of an infectious disease. The model is behavioural in the sense that the constitutive law for the force of infection includes a distributed delay, called "information index", that…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…

Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…

This paper analyses an SIRS-type model for infectious diseases with account for behavioural changes associated with the simultaneous spread of awareness in the population. Two types of awareness are included into the model: private…

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…