相关论文: Frequentist Asymptotics of Variational Laplace

For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…

In recent years, the literature in the area of Bayesian asymptotics has been rapidly growing. It is increasingly important to understand the concept of posterior consistency and validate specific Bayesian methods, in terms of consistency of…

The frequentist variability of Bayesian posterior expectations can provide meaningful measures of uncertainty even when models are misspecified. Classical methods to asymptotically approximate the frequentist covariance of Bayesian…

Asymptotic statistical theory for estimating functions is reviewed in a generality suitable for stochastic processes. Conditions concerning existence of a consistent estimator, uniqueness, rate of convergence, and the asymptotic…

We study frequentist asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional Gaussian sparse regression when unknown nuisance parameters are involved. Nuisance parameters can be finite-, high-, or infinite-dimensional. A mixture…

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL)…

We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models,…

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

We show how to use a variational approximation to the logistic function to perform approximate inference in Bayesian networks containing discrete nodes with continuous parents. Essentially, we convert the logistic function to a Gaussian,…

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime. We will focus on the…

Inference for GP models with non-Gaussian noises is computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. Many recent inference methods approximate the posterior distribution with a simpler distribution defined on a small number of…

For affine stochastic differential equation with uniformly distributed time delay the local asymptotic properties of the likelihood function are studied. Local asymptotic normality, local asymptotic mixed normality, periodic local…

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

Mean-field variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference in many probabilistic models. In a typical application, mean-field methods approximately compute the posterior with a coordinate-ascent optimization…

Higher criticism is a large-scale testing procedure that can attain the optimal detection boundary for sparse and faint signals. However, there has been a lack of knowledge in most existing works about its asymptotic distribution for more…

This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve…

Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…

In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…

A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…

Quantiles are useful characteristics of random variables that can provide substantial information on distributions compared with commonly used summary statistics such as means. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian quantile trend filtering…