相关论文: Frequentist Asymptotics of Variational Laplace

We investigate the frequentist guarantees of the variational sparse Gaussian process regression model. In the theoretical analysis, we focus on the variational approach with spectral features as inducing variables. We derive guarantees and…

In this paper, we first investigate the estimation of the empirical joint Laplace transform of volatilities of two semi-martingales within a fixed time interval [0, T] by using overlapped increments of high-frequency data. The proposed…

Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…

Inference is the task of drawing conclusions about unobserved variables given observations of related variables. Applications range from identifying diseases from symptoms to classifying economic regimes from price movements. Unfortunately,…

Popular deterministic approximations of posterior distributions from, e.g. the Laplace method, variational Bayes and expectation-propagation, generally rely on symmetric approximating families, often taken to be Gaussian. This choice…

We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…

We consider generalized Bayesian inference on stochastic processes and dynamical systems with potentially long-range dependency. Given a sequence of observations, a class of parametrized model processes with a prior distribution, and a loss…

We study the asymptotic consistency properties of $\alpha$-R\'enyi approximate posteriors, a class of variational Bayesian methods that approximate an intractable Bayesian posterior with a member of a tractable family of distributions, the…

Bayesian inference offers benefits over maximum likelihood, but it also comes with computational costs. Computing the posterior is typically intractable, as is marginalizing that posterior to form the posterior predictive distribution. In…

Variational inference has been widely used in machine learning literature to fit various Bayesian models. In network analysis, this method has been successfully applied to solve the community detection problems. Although these results are…

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

This paper investigates Frequentist consistency properties of the posterior distributions constructed via Generalized Variational Inference (GVI). A number of generic and novel strategies are given for proving consistency, relying on the…

Bayesian inference for high-dimensional inverse problems is computationally costly and requires selecting a suitable prior distribution. Amortized variational inference addresses these challenges via a neural network that approximates the…

Many statistical models have likelihoods which are intractable: it is impossible or too expensive to compute the likelihood exactly. In such settings, a common approach is to replace the likelihood with an approximation, and proceed with…

Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification. We propose predictive variational inference…

We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. The model considered in the paper is very general as we do not impose any…

This paper develops a new statistical inference theory for the precision matrix of high-frequency data in a high-dimensional setting. The focus is not only on point estimation but also on interval estimation and hypothesis testing for…

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…

We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…