相关论文: Bootstrap prediction intervals for the age distrib…

We introduce a model-agnostic procedure to construct prediction intervals for the age distribution of deaths. The age distribution of deaths is an example of constrained data, which are nonnegative and have a constrained integral. A…

To address the difficult problem of multi-step ahead prediction of non-parametric autoregressions, we consider a forward bootstrap approach. Employing a local constant estimator, we can analyze a general type of non-parametric time series…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Like density functions, period life-table death counts are nonnegative and have a constrained integral, and thus live in a constrained nonlinear space. Implementing established modelling and forecasting methods without obeying these…

The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications,…

This paper develops valid bootstrap inference methods for the dynamic short panel threshold regression. We show that the standard nonparametric bootstrap is inconsistent for the first-differenced generalized method of moments (GMM)…

We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…

This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

This paper proposes a new bootstrap method to compute predictive intervals for nonlinear autoregressive time series model forecast. This method we call the splice boobstrap as it involves splicing the last p values of a given series to a…

We investigate the performance of model based bootstrap methods for constructing point-wise confidence intervals around the survival function with interval censored data. We show that bootstrapping from the nonparametric maximum likelihood…

It can be argued that optimal prediction should take into account all available data. Therefore, to evaluate a prediction interval's performance one should employ conditional coverage probability, conditioning on all available observations.…

Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…

The problem of quantifying uncertainty about the locations of multiple change points by means of confidence intervals is addressed. The asymptotic distribution of the change point estimators obtained as the local maximisers of moving sum…

We propose a nonstationary functional time series forecasting method with an application to age-specific mortality rates observed over the years. The method begins by taking the first-order differencing and estimates its long-run covariance…

We introduce a compositional power transformation, known as an {\alpha}-transformation, to model and forecast a time series of life-table death counts, possibly with zero counts observed at older ages. As a generalisation of the isometric…

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…

The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance,…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…