相关论文: Poisson Approximate Likelihood versus the block pa…

Filtering algorithms are fundamental for inference on partially observed stochastic dynamic systems, since they provide access to the likelihood function and hence enable likelihood-based or Bayesian inference. A novel Poisson approximate…

Addressing the challenge of scaling-up epidemiological inference to complex and heterogeneous models, we introduce Poisson Approximate Likelihood (PAL) methods. In contrast to the popular ODE approach to compartmental modelling, in which a…

An assumed density approximate likelihood is derived for a class of partially observed stochastic compartmental models which permit observational over-dispersion. This is achieved by treating time-varying reporting probabilities as latent…

Our article deals with Bayesian inference for a general state space model with the simulated likelihood computed by the particle filter. We show empirically that the partially or fully adapted particle filters can be much more efficient…

We consider inference for a collection of partially observed, stochastic, interacting, nonlinear dynamic processes. Each process is identified with a label called its unit, and our primary motivation arises in biological metapopulation…

In this paper we introduce a novel particle filter scheme for a class of partially-observed multivariate diffusions. %continuous-time dynamic models where the %signal is given by a multivariate diffusion process. We consider a variety of…

We show that it is feasible to carry out exact Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian state space models using an adaptive Metropolis Hastings sampling scheme with the likelihood approximated by the particle filter. Furthermore, an adapyive…

This article discusses a partially adapted particle filter for estimating the likelihood of a nonlinear structural econometric state space models whose state transition density cannot be expressed in closed form. The filter generates the…

Estimating the statistics of the state of a dynamical system, from partial and noisy observations, is both mathematically challenging and finds wide application. Furthermore, the applications are of great societal importance, including…

Twisted particle filters are a class of sequential Monte Carlo methods recently introduced by Whiteley and Lee to improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation in state-space models. The purpose of this article is to extend the…

A cloud scheduler packs tasks onto machines with contradictory goals of (1) using the machines as efficiently as possible while (2) avoiding overloading that might result in CPU throttling or out-of-memory errors. We take a stochastic…

Particle filtering algorithms have enabled practical solutions to problems in autonomous robotics (self-driving cars, UAVs, warehouse robots), target tracking, and econometrics, with further applications in speech processing and medicine…

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale estimation and inference in the Poisson means problem. Existing results establish theoretical properties of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) for optimal posterior…

An optimal filter for Poisson observations is developed as a variant of the traditional Kalman filter. Poisson distributions are characteristic of infectious diseases, which model the number of patients recorded as presenting each day to a…

Epidemiological models have tremendous potential to forecast disease burden and quantify the impact of interventions. Detailed models are increasingly popular, however these models tend to be stochastic and very costly to evaluate.…

This paper is concerned with particle filtering for $\alpha$-stable stochastic volatility models. The $\alpha$-stable distribution provides a flexible framework for modeling asymmetry and heavy tails, which is useful when modeling financial…

The work concerns the nonlinear filtering problem for a class of multiscale McKean-Vlasov stochastic systems. First of all, by a Poisson equation we prove that the solution of the slow part for a multiscale system weakly converges to the…

We consider online computation of expectations of additive state functionals under general path probability measures proportional to products of unnormalised transition densities. These transition densities are assumed to be intractable but…

When classical particle filtering algorithms are used for maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models, a key challenge is that estimates of the likelihood function and its derivatives are inherently noisy. The…

Microscopy research often requires recovering particle-size distributions in three dimensions from only a few (10 - 200) profile measurements in the section. This problem is especially relevant for petrographic and mineralogical studies,…