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Consider sensitivity analysis for estimating average treatment effects under unmeasured confounding, assumed to satisfy a marginal sensitivity model. At the population level, we provide new representations for the sharp population bounds…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-26 Zhiqiang Tan

A key challenge in causal inference from observational studies is the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for causal inference that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-17 Ying Zhou , Dingke Tang , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

An important strategy for identifying principal causal effects, which are often used in settings with noncompliance, is to invoke the principal ignorability (PI) assumption. As PI is untestable, it is important to gauge how sensitive effect…

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin

Estimating the health effects of multiple air pollutants is a crucial problem in public health, but one that is difficult due to unmeasured confounding bias. Motivated by this issue, we develop a framework for partial identification of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-23 Suyeon Kang , Alexander Franks , Michelle Audirac , Danielle Braun , Joseph Antonelli

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-11 Yonghoon Lee , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Edgar Dobriban

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-30 Manuel Iglesias-Alonso , Felix Schur , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas Peters

We study distribution-free predictive inference for data with group symmetries, aiming to establish near-conditional coverage guarantees beyond exchangeability for structured data. While many predictive inference methods achieve a target…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-19 Yichen Shen , Mengxin Yu

Estimating individualized treatment effects (ITEs) from observational data is crucial for decision-making. In order to obtain unbiased ITE estimates, a common assumption is that all confounders are observed. However, in practice, it is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-12-07 Milan Kuzmanovic , Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

This paper develops new methods for causal inference in observational studies on a single large network of interconnected units, addressing two key challenges: long-range dependence among units and the presence of general interference. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-24 Jizhou Liu , Dake Zhang , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-03 Evangelos Dimitriou , Edwin Fong , Jens Magelund Tarp , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Brieuc Lehmann

Foundation models based on prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have shown strong empirical performance in causal inference by framing the task as an in-context learning problem.However, it is unclear whether PFN-based causal estimators…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Vahid Balazadeh , Stefan Feuerriegel , Rahul G. Krishnan

The Potential Outcome Framework (POF) plays a prominent role in the field of causal inference. Most causal inference models based on the POF (CIMs-POF) are designed for eliminating confounding bias and default to an underlying assumption of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-06 Yonghe Zhao , Qiang Huang , Shuai Fu , Huiyan Sun

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-28 Qian Li , Zhichao Wang , Shaowu Liu , Gang Li , Guandong Xu

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-28 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

We extend Fisher's randomization test (FRT) to test conditional independence between observed outcomes and treatments given covariates in both randomized experiments and observational studies, with no restriction on the variable type of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Zhen Zhong

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework using observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our method introduces a Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-21 Gözde Sert , Abhishek Chakrabortty , Anirban Bhattacharya

Two problems that arise in making causal inferences for non-mortality outcomes such as bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) are unmeasured confounding and censoring by death, i.e., the outcome is only observed when subjects survive. In…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-20 Kwonsang Lee , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector