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We consider the problem of indirect comparison, where a treatment arm of interest is absent by design in one randomized controlled trial but available in the other. The former is the target trial, and the latter is the source trial. The…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-06 Zehao Su , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-02 Alexander W. Levis , Matteo Bonvini , Zhenghao Zeng , Luke Keele , Edward H. Kennedy

In observational study, the propensity score has the central role to estimate causal effects. Since the propensity score is usually unknown, estimating by appropriate procedures is an indispensable step. A point to note that a causal effect…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-19 Shunichiro Orihara

Causally insufficient structures (models with latent or hidden variables, or with confounding etc.) of joint probability distributions have been subject of intense study not only in statistics, but also in various AI systems. In AI, belief…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2018-06-04 Mieczysław A. Kłopotek

Synthetic control (SC) methods are commonly used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in panel data settings. An SC is a weighted average of control units built to match the treated unit, with weights typically…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Xu Shi , Kendrick Li , Wang Miao , Mengtong Hu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

In observational studies, potential unobserved confounding is a major barrier in isolating the average causal effect (ACE). In these scenarios, two main approaches are often used: confounder adjustment for causality (CAC) and instrumental…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-26 Roy S. Zawadzki , Daniel L. Gillen

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

Unmeasured confounding is a key challenge for causal inference. In this paper, we establish a framework for unmeasured confounding adjustment with negative control variables. A negative control outcome is associated with the confounder but…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-09 Wang Miao , Xu Shi , Yilin Li , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

No unmeasured confounding is often assumed in estimating treatment effects in observational data when using approaches such as propensity scores and inverse probability weighting. However, in many such studies due to the limitation of the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-08-06 Rong Huang , Ronghui Xu , Parambir S. Dulai

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Estimation of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) is an important topic of causal inference in econometrics and statistics. This problem seems to be often treated as a simple modification or extension of that of estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-07 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan

Identification of treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is a persistent problem in the social, biological, and medical sciences. The problem of unmeasured confounding in settings with multiple treatments is most common…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-12 Wang Miao , Wenjie Hu , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Xiaohua Zhou

Instrumental variable methods are widely used for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Existing instrumental variable methods for nonlinear outcome models require stringent identifiability conditions. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-01 Sai Li , Zijian Guo

We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-04 Gabriel Ruiz , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-02 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Data-driven individualized decision making has recently received increasing research interests. Most existing methods rely on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, which unfortunately cannot be ensured in practice especially in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-26 Zhengling Qi , Rui Miao , Xiaoke Zhang