相关论文: Understanding the European energy crisis through s…
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…
Natural gas demand is a crucial factor for predicting natural gas prices and thus has a direct influence on the power system. However, existing methods face challenges in assessing the impact of shocks, such as the outbreak of the…
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian reverse unrestricted mixed-frequency model applied to a panel of nine European electricity markets. Our model analyzes the impact of daily fossil fuel prices and hourly renewable energy generation on…
We investigate the impact of several critical events associated with the Russo Ukrainian war, started officially on 24 February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on ten European electricity markets, two natural gas markets (the…
We study the prices of European Emission Allowances (EUA), whereby we analyze their uncertainty and dependencies on related energy prices (natural gas, coal, and oil). We propose a probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model…
Electricity markets are changing, driven by large-scale renewable integration and rising demand from electrification and digitalisation. This raises fundamental questions about how electricity prices form as the relationships among key…
Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model…
The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical…
Researchers and electricity sector practitioners frequently require the supply curve of electricity markets and the price elasticity of supply for purposes such as price forecasting, policy analyses or market power assessment. It is common…
The recent energy crisis starting in 2021 led to record-high gas, coal, carbon and power prices, with electricity reaching up to 40 times the pre-crisis average. This had dramatic consequences for operational and risk management prompting…
Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian…
Relationships between the energy and the finance markets are increasingly important. Understanding these relationships is vital for policymakers and other stakeholders as the world faces challenges such as satisfying humanity's increasing…
Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa,…
The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits…
Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…
The availability of historical data related to electricity day-ahead prices and to the underlying price formation process is limited. In addition, the electricity market in Europe is facing a rapid transformation, which limits the…
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas…
This paper examines the dependence between electricity prices, demand, and renewable energy sources by means of a multivariate copula model {while studying Germany, the widest studied market in Europe}. The inter-dependencies are…
This study employs the Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) statistical method to analyze the influence of electricity pricing policies on carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the household sector. Investigating the causality between potential…
The interconnected European Electricity Markets see considerable cross-border trade between different countries. In conjunction with the structure and technical characteristics of the power grid and its operating rules, the corresponding…