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Selection bias is a major obstacle toward valid causal inference in epidemiology. Over the past decade, several graphical rules based on causal diagrams have been proposed as the sufficient identification conditions for addressing selection…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-18 Yichi Zhang , Haidong Lu

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-24 Natraj Raman , Daniele Magazzeni , Sameena Shah

It is often said that the fundamental problem of causal inference is a missing data problem -- the comparison of responses to two hypothetical treatment assignments is made difficult because for every experimental unit only one potential…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-21 Razieh Nabi , Rohit Bhattacharya , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

Counterfactual Explanations (CE) face several unresolved challenges, such as ensuring stability, synthesizing multiple CEs, and providing plausibility and sparsity guarantees. From a more practical point of view, recent studies [Pawelczyk…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-03-19 Salim I. Amoukou , Nicolas J. B Brunel

We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-19 Jiaying Gu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Azeem M. Shaikh

Observational data is increasingly used as a means for making individual-level causal predictions and intervention recommendations. The foremost challenge of causal inference from observational data is hidden confounding, whose presence…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-30 Nathan Kallus , Aahlad Manas Puli , Uri Shalit

We address counterfactual analysis in empirical models of games with partially identified parameters, and multiple equilibria and/or randomized strategies, by constructing and analyzing the counterfactual predictive distribution set (CPDS).…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-10-17 Brendan Kline , Elie Tamer

Estimating causal effects from observational data is not always possible due to confounding. Identifying a set of appropriate covariates (adjustment set) and adjusting for their influence can remove confounding bias; however, such a set is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-19 Sofia Triantafillou , Gregory Cooper

Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs where some facts hold with a specified probability. Here, we investigate these programs with a causal framework that allows counterfactual queries. Learning the program structure from…

计算机科学中的逻辑 · 计算机科学 2023-08-31 Kilian Rückschloß , Felix Weitkämper

Transporting causal information across populations is a critical challenge in clinical decision-making. Causal modeling provides criteria for identifiability and transportability, but these require knowledge of the causal graph, which…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Konstantina Lelova , Gregory F. Cooper , Sofia Triantafillou

Being able to reason about how one's behaviour can affect the behaviour of others is a core skill required of intelligent driving agents. Despite this, the state of the art struggles to meet the need of agents to discover causal links…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2024-03-07 Rhys Howard , Lars Kunze

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-05-19 Yu Wang , Xiangchen Liu , Siguang Li

Large-scale datasets are increasingly being used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arisen as selection bias and other forms of distribution shifts often plague…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-07 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Mateo Dulce , Carlos Patino , Bryan Wilder

Algorithmic recourse aims to provide actionable recommendations to individuals to obtain a more favourable outcome from an automated decision-making system. As it involves reasoning about interventions performed in the physical world,…

We consider the problem of estimating the counterfactual joint distribution of multiple quantities of interests (e.g., outcomes) in a multivariate causal model extended from the classical difference-in-difference design. Existing methods…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-11-03 Thong Pham , Shohei Shimizu , Hideitsu Hino , Tam Le

Counterfactuals are central in causal human reasoning and the scientific discovery process. The uplift, also called conditional average treatment effect, measures the causal effect of some action, or treatment, on the outcome of an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Denis Mercier , Jeevan Shrestha , Gianluca Bontempi

Data can be collected in scientific studies via a controlled experiment or passive observation. Big data is often collected in a passive way, e.g. from social media. In studies of causation great efforts are made to guard against bias and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-11-21 Elena Pesce , Eva Riccomagno , Henry P. Wynn

In the field of road safety, it is common to use responsibility analyses to assess the effect of a given factor on the risk of being responsible for an accident, among drivers involved in an accident only. Even if this design is now widely…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-16 Marine Dufournet , Emilie Lanoy , Jean-Louis Martin , Vivian Viallon

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-09 Ellis Scharfenaker , Duncan K. Foley