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This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-11 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , Qiaojun Feng , Mihaela van der Schaar

Counterfactual explanations provide actionable insights by identifying minimal input changes required to achieve a desired model prediction. Beyond their interpretability benefits, counterfactuals can also be leveraged for model…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-12 Xuan Zhao , Zhuo Cao , Arya Bangun , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

There has been a recent resurgence of interest in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) that aims to reduce the opaqueness of AI-based decision-making systems, allowing humans to scrutinize and trust them. Prior work in this context has…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-06-24 Sainyam Galhotra , Romila Pradhan , Babak Salimi

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

Causal and counterfactual reasoning are emerging directions in data science that allow us to reason about hypothetical scenarios. This is particularly useful in fields like environmental and ecological sciences, where interventional data…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-12-06 Rafael Cabañas , Ana D. Maldonado , María Morales , Pedro A. Aguilera , Antonio Salmerón

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-22 Pedro Sanchez , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

A general belief in fair classification is that fairness constraints incur a trade-off with accuracy, which biased data may worsen. Contrary to this belief, Blum & Stangl (2019) show that fair classification with equal opportunity…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-04 Mohit Sharma , Amit Deshpande

Fairness of classification and regression has received much attention recently and various, partially non-compatible, criteria have been proposed. The fairness criteria can be enforced for a given classifier or, alternatively, the data can…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-18 Drago Plečko , Nicolai Meinshausen

Counterfactual reasoning -- envisioning hypothetical scenarios, or possible worlds, where some circumstances are different from what (f)actually occurred (counter-to-fact) -- is ubiquitous in human cognition. Conventionally,…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-05-31 Julius von Kügelgen , Abdirisak Mohamed , Sander Beckers

Counterfactual analysis is intuitively performed by humans on a daily basis eg. "What should I have done differently to get the loan approved?". Such counterfactual questions also steer the formulation of scientific hypotheses. More…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-18 Juliane Weilbach , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir , Martin Fraenzle

Probabilities of causation are fundamental to individual-level explanation and decision making, yet they are inherently counterfactual and not point-identifiable from data in general. Existing bounds either disregard available covariates,…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-17 Yuxuan Xie , Ang Li

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

Causal inference for testing clinical hypotheses from observational data presents many difficulties because the underlying data-generating model and the associated causal graph are not usually available. Furthermore, observational data may…

The wide adoption of AI decision-making systems in critical domains such as criminal justice, loan approval, and hiring processes has heightened concerns about algorithmic fairness. As we often only have access to the output of algorithms…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-02 Saeyoung Rho , Junzhe Zhang , Elias Bareinboim

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2024-04-08 Arran Zeyu Wang , David Borland , David Gotz

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-06 Peng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Yan Zeng , Jiawei Chen , Yang Liu , Ruocheng Guo , Kun Zhang

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Inverse Ising inference allows pairwise interactions of complex binary systems to be reconstructed from empirical correlations. Typical estimators used for this inference, such as Pseudo-likelihood maximization (PLM), are biased. Using the…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2023-07-19 Maximilian Benedikt Kloucek , Thomas Machon , Shogo Kajimura , C. Patrick Royall , Naoki Masuda , Francesco Turci