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In this note we consider the stability of posterior measures occuring in Bayesian inference w.r.t. perturbations of the prior measure and the log-likelihood function. This extends the well-posedness analysis of Bayesian inverse problems. In…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-06-24 Björn Sprungk

Frequentist conditions for asymptotic suitability of Bayesian procedures focus on lower bounds for prior mass in Kullback-Leibler neighbourhoods of the data distribution. The goal of this paper is to investigate the flexibility in criteria…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-03-19 B. J. K. Kleijn , Y. Y. Zhao

The subject of this article is the introduction of a new concept of well-posedness of Bayesian inverse problems. The conventional concept of (Lipschitz, Hellinger) well-posedness in [Stuart 2010, Acta Numerica 19, pp. 451-559] is difficult…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-03-16 Jonas Latz

In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-06 Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo , Tapio Helin , Franca Hoffmann , Bamdad Hosseini

We prove rates of convergence and robustness to prior misspecification within a Generalised Variational Inference (GVI) framework with bounded divergences. This addresses a significant open challenge for GVI and Federated GVI that employ a…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-04 Terje Mildner , Paris Giampouras , Theodoros Damoulas

This paper establishes a general topological condition under which the semilocal stability of a set-valued mapping can be exactly determined by its local stability properties. Specifically, we investigate the relationship between the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-03-12 J. Camacho

Bayesian coresets speed up posterior inference in the large-scale data regime by approximating the full-data log-likelihood function with a surrogate log-likelihood based on a small, weighted subset of the data. But while Bayesian coresets…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-18 Trevor Campbell

In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-02-27 Han Cheng Lie , T. J. Sullivan , Aretha Teckentrup

We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 B. J. K. Kleijn , A. W. van der Vaart

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian posterior distributions under independent and identically distributed ($i.i.d.$) misspecified models. More specifically, we study the concentration of the posterior distribution on…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-12-04 R. V. Ramamoorthi , Karthik Sriram , Ryan Martin

We study the well-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem for scalar hyperbolic conservation laws where the statistical information about inputs such as the initial datum and (possibly discontinuous) flux function are inferred from noisy…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-07-23 Siddhartha Mishra , David Ochsner , Adrian M. Ruf , Franziska Weber

This paper is devoted to the proof of Lipschitz regularity, down to the microscopic scale, for solutions of an elliptic system with highly oscillating coefficients, over a highly oscillating Lipschitz boundary. The originality of this…

偏微分方程分析 · 数学 2015-04-08 Carlos Kenig , Christophe Prange

In this paper, we use the class of Wasserstein metrics to study asymptotic properties of posterior distributions. Our first goal is to provide sufficient conditions for posterior consistency. In addition to the well-known Schwartz's…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-07-01 Minwoo Chae , Pierpaolo De Blasi , Stephen G. Walker

The Lipschitz constant is an important quantity that arises in analysing the convergence of gradient-based optimization methods. It is generally unclear how to estimate the Lipschitz constant of a complex model. Thus, this paper studies an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-10 Calypso Herrera , Florian Krach , Josef Teichmann

Lipschitz continuity is a crucial functional property of any predictive model, that naturally governs its robustness, generalisation, as well as adversarial vulnerability. Contrary to other works that focus on obtaining tighter bounds and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-16 Grigory Khromov , Sidak Pal Singh

In Bayesian statistics, a continuity property of the posterior distribution with respect to the observable variable is crucial as it expresses well-posedness, i.e., stability with respect to errors in the measurement of data. Essentially,…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-17 Emanuele Dolera , Edoardo Mainini

This article extends the framework of Bayesian inverse problems in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces, as advocated by Stuart (Acta Numer. 19:451--559, 2010) and others, to the case of a heavy-tailed prior measure in the family of stable…

概率论 · 数学 2018-05-23 T. J. Sullivan

To the frequentist who computes posteriors, not all priors are useful asymptotically: in this paper Schwartz's 1965 Kullback-Leibler condition is generalised to enable frequentist interpretation of convergence of posterior distributions…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-11-28 B. J. K. Kleijn

We show that the log-likelihood of several probabilistic graphical models is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the lp-norm of the parameters. We discuss several implications of Lipschitz parametrization. We present an upper bound of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-11-16 Jean Honorio

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-06 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller
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