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Multi-step stock price prediction over a long-term horizon is crucial for forecasting its volatility, allowing financial institutions to price and hedge derivatives, and banks to quantify the risk in their trading books. Additionally, most…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2023-10-31 Kelvin J. L. Koa , Yunshan Ma , Ritchie Ng , Tat-Seng Chua

We build a time-causal variational autoencoder (TC-VAE) for robust generation of financial time series data. Our approach imposes a causality constraint on the encoder and decoder networks, ensuring a causal transport from the real market…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-06 Beatrice Acciaio , Stephan Eckstein , Songyan Hou

We propose a new class of physics-informed neural networks, called physics-informed Variational Autoencoder (PI-VAE), to solve stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or inverse problems involving SDEs. In these problems the governing…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-11-09 Weiheng Zhong , Hadi Meidani

Time series forecasting plays a vital role across scientific, industrial, and environmental domains, especially when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear systems. While Transformer-based models have recently achieved state-of-the-art…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-05 Ali Forootani , Mohammad Khosravi , Masoud Barati

Heavy-tailed distributions are ubiquitous in real-world data, where rare but extreme events dominate risk and variability. However, standard Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) employ simple decoder distributions, such as Gaussian…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-27 Abdelhakim Ziani , András Horváth , Paolo Ballarini

One way to improve the estimation of time varying channels is to incorporate knowledge of previous observations. In this context, Dynamical VAEs (DVAEs) build a promising deep learning (DL) framework which is well suited to learn the…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-11-04 Benedikt Böck , Michael Baur , Valentina Rizzello , Wolfgang Utschick

Kernel analog forecasting (KAF), alternatively known as kernel principal component regression, is a kernel method used for nonparametric statistical forecasting of dynamically generated time series data. This paper synthesizes descriptions…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-06-24 Romeo Alexander , Dimitrios Giannakis

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a powerful generative model that can estimate the probability of a data point by using latent variables. In the VAE, the posterior of the latent variable given the data point is regularized by the prior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-12-30 Hiroshi Takahashi , Tomoharu Iwata , Yuki Yamanaka , Masanori Yamada , Satoshi Yagi

Spatio-temporal forecasting is crucial in transportation, logistics, and supply chain management. However, current methods struggle with large, complex datasets. We propose a dynamic, multi-modal approach that integrates the strengths of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-27 Sagar Srinivas Sakhinana , Geethan Sannidhi , Chidaksh Ravuru , Venkataramana Runkana

The advancement of distributed generation technologies in modern power systems has led to a widespread integration of renewable power generation at customer side. However, the intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-31 Devinder Kaur , Shama Naz Islam , Md. Apel Mahmud , Md. Enamul Haque , Adnan Anwar

We propose a novel method for forecasting the temporal evolution of probability distributions observed at discrete time points. Extending the Dynamic Probability Density Decomposition (DPDD), we embed distributional dynamics into…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-09-03 Ziyue Wang , Yuko Araki

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is a fundamental problem in numerous real-world applications. Recently, Transformer has become the de facto solution for MTSF, especially for the long-term cases. However, except for the one…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-07 Zanwei Zhou , Ruizhe Zhong , Chen Yang , Yan Wang , Xiaokang Yang , Wei Shen

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) employ Bayesian inference to interpret sensory inputs, mirroring processes that occur in primate vision across both ventral (Higgins et al., 2021) and dorsal (Vafaii et al., 2023) pathways. Despite their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-10 Hadi Vafaii , Dekel Galor , Jacob L. Yates

Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) has been extended as a representative nonlinear method for collaborative filtering. However, the bottleneck of VAE lies in the softmax computation over all items, such that it takes linear costs in the number…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-31 Jin Chen , Defu Lian , Binbin Jin , Xu Huang , Kai Zheng , Enhong Chen

Variational autoencoder (VAE) neural networks can be trained to generate power system states that capture both marginal distribution and multivariate dependencies of historical data. The coordinates of the latent space codes of VAEs have…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-03-22 Chenguang Wang , Ensieh Sharifnia , Simon H. Tindemans , Peter Palensky

We introduce and demonstrate the variational autoencoder (VAE) for probabilistic non-negative matrix factorisation (PAE-NMF). We design a network which can perform non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) and add in aspects of a VAE to make…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-17 Steven Squires , Adam Prügel Bennett , Mahesan Niranjan

In the context of an increasing popularity of data-driven models to represent dynamical systems, many machine learning-based implementations of the Koopman operator have recently been proposed. However, the vast majority of those works are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-14 Anthony Frion , Lucas Drumetz , Guillaume Tochon , Mauro Dalla Mura , Albdeldjalil Aïssa El Bey

Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) have emerged as powerful probabilistic models for generative tasks. However, their convergence properties have not been rigorously proven. The challenge of proving convergence is inherently difficult due to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-10 Li Wang , Wei Huang

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-12 Dennis Thumm , Luis Ontaneda Mijares

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is vital in fields like weather, energy, and finance. However, despite deep learning advancements, traditional Transformer-based models often diminish the effect of crucial inter-variable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-03 Yanhong Li , David C. Anastasiu