相关论文: Modeling the Siege of Syracuse: Resources, strateg…
In this paper, we present an innovative non-linear discrete system trying to model the historic battle of Salamis between Greeks and Persians. September 2020 marks the anniversary of the 2500 years that have passed since this famous naval…
An explanation for the political processes leading to the sudden collapse of empires and states would be useful for understanding both historical and contemporary political events. We seek a general description of state collapse spanning…
This study is based on Roman wooden force pumps. It appears that they were used in small numbers to raise water from wells, and more commonly as portable pumps to fight fires. The force pump is attributed to Ctesibius of Alexandria (fl.…
Modeling historical events poses fundamental challenges for machine learning: extreme data scarcity (N << 100), heterogeneous and noisy measurements, missing counterfactuals, and the requirement for human interpretable explanations. We…
The swinging counterweight trebuchet was at its full blossom in the Late Middle Ages an artillery piece of great importance that could destroy the defenses of castles under siege by bombardment with stones from considerable distances. The…
This paper discusses a recently proposed scenario of a climate-induced Collapse of the Eastern Mediterranean in the 11th century AD. It demonstrates that such a scenario cannot be maintained when confronted with proxy data from various…
This thesis presents a novel framework for analysing the societal impacts of armed conflict by applying principles from engineering and material science. Building on the idea of a "social fabric", it recasts communities as plates with…
For many decades scholars converse how to correctly include the Old Babylonian Empire into the absolute timeline of history. A cuneiform text from the series Enuma Anu Enlil (EAE #20) reports on the destruction of Babylon after a lunar and…
The classical Lanchester's model is shortly reviewed and analysed, with particular attention to the critical issues that intrinsically arise from the mathematical formalization of the problem. We then generalize a particular version of such…
Water infrastructure in the United States is beginning to show its age, particularly through water main breaks. Main breaks cause major disruptions in everyday life for residents and businesses. Water main failures in Syracuse, N.Y. (as in…
The paper presents a critical introduction to the complex statistical models used in ${}^{14}$C dating. The emphasis is on the estimation of the transit time between a sequence of archeological layers. Although a frequentist estimation of…
We prove the efficiency of a new method for the detection of crucial events that might have useful applications to the war against terrorism. This has to do with the search for rare but significant events, a theme of research that has been…
For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable…
Large-scale crises, including wars and pandemics, have repeatedly shaped human history, and their simultaneous occurrence presents profound challenges to societies. Understanding the dynamics of epidemic spread during warfare is essential…
The Roman Empire shaped Western civilization, and many Roman principles are embodied in modern institutions. Although its political institutions proved both resilient and adaptable, allowing it to incorporate diverse populations, the Empire…
A myth of antiquity is explained with modern science in the context of an ancient naval battle. A legend was invoked by the admiral Pliny the Elder to explain the defeat of Antony and Cleopatra against Octavian at the naval battle of…
For the description of a pandemic mathematical models could be interesting. Both for physicians and politicians as a base for decisions to treat the disease. The responsible estimation of parameters is a main issue of mathematical pandemic…
A design-centric modeling approach was proposed to model the behaviour of the physical processes controlled by Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and study the cascading impact of data-oriented attacks. A threat model was used as input to…
Existing data on building destruction in conflict zones rely on eyewitness reports or manual detection, which makes it generally scarce, incomplete and potentially biased. This lack of reliable data imposes severe limitations for media…
This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…