相关论文: Time-varying Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressio…

Latent variable models are powerful statistical tools that can uncover relevant variation between patients or cells, by inferring unobserved hidden states from observable high-dimensional data. A major shortcoming of current methods,…

Accurate macroeconomic forecasting has become harder amid geopolitical disruptions, policy reversals, and volatile financial markets. Conventional vector autoregressions (VARs) overfit in high dimensional settings, while threshold VARs…

Recent studies on Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have highlighted that high-frequency components, or later steps, in the generation process contribute disproportionately to inference latency. However, the underlying computational…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…

Variational autoencoders (VAE) are powerful generative models that learn the latent representations of input data as random variables. Recent studies show that VAE can flexibly learn the complex temporal dynamics of time series and achieve…

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

Consider a linear model $y = X \beta + z$, $z \sim N(0, \sigma^2 I_n)$. The Gram matrix $\Theta = \frac{1}{n} X'X$ is non-sparse, but it is approximately the sum of two components, a low-rank matrix and a sparse matrix, where neither…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous…

A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to…

Visual autoregressive (VAR) models have recently emerged as a promising alternative for image generation, offering stable training, non-iterative inference, and high-fidelity synthesis through next-scale prediction. This encourages the…

In this paper, we introduce a novel high-dimensional Factor-Adjusted sparse Partially Linear regression Model (FAPLM), to integrate the linear effects of high-dimensional latent factors with the nonparametric effects of low-dimensional…

We study identification in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) in which the endogenous variables enter nonlinearly on the left-hand side of the model, a feature we term endogenous nonlinearity, to distinguish it from the more familiar…

The objective of transfer learning is to enhance estimation and inference in a target data by leveraging knowledge gained from additional sources. Recent studies have explored transfer learning for independent observations in complex,…

Translating the internal representations and computations of models into concepts that humans can understand is a key goal of interpretability. While recent dictionary learning methods such as Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) provide a promising…

Variational autoencoders model high-dimensional data by positing low-dimensional latent variables that are mapped through a flexible distribution parametrized by a neural network. Unfortunately, variational autoencoders often suffer from…

Many applications, such as text modelling, high-throughput sequencing, and recommender systems, require analysing sparse, high-dimensional, and overdispersed discrete (count-valued or binary) data. Although probabilistic matrix…

Consider a multi-variate time series $(X_t)_{t=0}^{T}$ where $X_t \in \mathbb{R}^d$ which may represent spike train responses for multiple neurons in a brain, crime event data across multiple regions, and many others. An important challenge…

This paper introduces a novel sparse latent factor modeling framework using sparse asymptotic Principal Component Analysis (APCA) to analyze the co-movements of high-dimensional panel data over time. Unlike existing methods based on sparse…

Autoregressive attention-based time series forecasting (TSF) has drawn increasing interest, with mechanisms like linear attention sometimes outperforming vanilla attention. However, deeper Transformer architectures frequently misalign with…