相关论文: Simultaneous Swap Regret Minimization via KL-Calib…

We study the problem of minimizing swap regret in structured normal-form games. Players have a very large (potentially infinite) number of pure actions, but each action has an embedding into $d$-dimensional space and payoffs are given by…

We study the online calibration of multi-dimensional forecasts over an arbitrary convex set $\mathcal{P} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ relative to an arbitrary norm $\Vert\cdot\Vert$. We connect this with the problem of external regret minimization…

We consider the problem of minimizing different notions of swap regret in online optimization. These forms of regret are tightly connected to correlated equilibrium concepts in games, and have been more recently shown to guarantee…

We give a randomized online algorithm that guarantees near-optimal $\widetilde O(\sqrt T)$ expected swap regret against any sequence of $T$ adaptively chosen Lipschitz convex losses on the unit interval. This improves the previous best…

In this paper, we consider the related problems of multicalibration -- a multigroup fairness notion and omniprediction -- a simultaneous loss minimization paradigm, both in the distributional and online settings. The recent work of Garg et…

AI generated predictions increasingly inform decision making in critical tasks, and therefore must be trustworthy. One widely used measure of trustworthiness is calibration, which requires that the predictions match the true frequencies and…

We study the problem of making predictions so that downstream agents who best respond to them will be guaranteed diminishing swap regret, no matter what their utility functions are. It has been known since Foster and Vohra (1997) that…

We define "decision swap regret" which generalizes both prediction for downstream swap regret and omniprediction, and give algorithms for obtaining it for arbitrary multi-dimensional Lipschitz loss functions in online adversarial settings.…

We study the problem of global optimization, where we analyze the performance of the Piyavskii--Shubert algorithm and its variants. For any given time duration $T$, instead of the extensively studied simple regret (which is the difference…

Calibration allows predictions to be reliably interpreted as probabilities by decision makers. We propose a decision-theoretic calibration error, the Calibration Decision Loss (CDL), defined as the maximum improvement in decision payoff…

Making calibrated online predictions is a central challenge in modern AI systems. Much of the existing literature focuses on fully adversarial environments where outcomes may be arbitrary, leading to conservative algorithms that can perform…

Focusing on the expert problem in online learning, this paper studies the interpolation of several performance metrics via $\phi$-regret minimization, which measures the total loss of an algorithm by its regret with respect to an arbitrary…

In this work, we propose a computationally efficient algorithm for the problem of global optimization in univariate loss functions. For the performance evaluation, we study the cumulative regret of the algorithm instead of the simple regret…

Recent studies have shown that reinforcement learning with KL-regularized objectives can enjoy faster rates of convergence or logarithmic regret, in contrast to the classical $\sqrt{T}$-type regret in the unregularized setting. However, the…

We study calibeating, the problem of post-processing external forecasts online to minimize cumulative losses and match an informativeness-based benchmark. Unlike prior work, which analyzed calibeating for specific losses with specific…

We consider the problem of evaluating forecasts of binary events whose predictions are consumed by rational agents who take an action in response to a prediction, but whose utility is unknown to the forecaster. We show that optimizing…

We give a simple and computationally efficient algorithm that, for any constant $\varepsilon>0$, obtains $\varepsilon T$-swap regret within only $T = \mathsf{polylog}(n)$ rounds; this is an exponential improvement compared to the…

We study a sequential binary prediction setting where the forecaster is evaluated in terms of the calibration distance, which is defined as the $L_1$ distance between the predicted values and the set of predictions that are perfectly…

Swap regret is a notion that has proven itself to be central to the study of general-sum normal-form games, with swap-regret minimization leading to convergence to the set of correlated equilibria and guaranteeing non-manipulability against…

We consider the problem of controlling a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) system over a finite horizon $T$ with fixed and known cost matrices $Q,R$, but unknown and non-stationary dynamics $\{A_t, B_t\}$. The sequence of dynamics matrices…