相关论文: Simultaneous Swap Regret Minimization via KL-Calib…

We consider the problem of online multiclass U-calibration, where a forecaster aims to make sequential distributional predictions over $K$ classes with low U-calibration error, that is, low regret with respect to all bounded proper losses…

We derive an online learning algorithm with improved regret guarantees for `easy' loss sequences. We consider two types of `easiness': (a) stochastic loss sequences and (b) adversarial loss sequences with small effective range of the…

Fueled by discussions around "trustworthiness" and algorithmic fairness, calibration of predictive systems has regained scholars attention. The vanilla definition and understanding of calibration is, simply put, on all days on which the…

We consider the problem of online learning in Linear Quadratic Control systems whose state transition and state-action transition matrices $A$ and $B$ may be initially unknown. We devise an online learning algorithm and provide guarantees…

Confidence calibration for classification models is vital in safety-critical decision-making scenarios and has received extensive attention. General confidence calibration methods assume training and test data are independent and…

The CFR framework has been a powerful tool for solving large-scale extensive-form games in practice. However, the theoretical rate at which past CFR-based algorithms converge to the Nash equilibrium is on the order of $O(T^{-1/2})$, where…

This work introduces a general framework for calibeating based on regret minimization. As compared to Foster and Hart's seminal calibeating work which had specialized treatments of Brier score (squared loss) and log loss, we consider a…

We provide consistent random algorithms for sequential decision under partial monitoring, i.e. when the decision maker does not observe the outcomes but receives instead random feedback signals. Those algorithms have no internal regret in…

Calibration ensures that predicted uncertainties align with observed uncertainties. While there is an extensive literature on recalibration methods for univariate probabilistic forecasts, work on calibration for multivariate forecasts is…

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret…

We study the framework of universal dynamic regret minimization with strongly convex losses. We answer an open problem in Baby and Wang 2021 by showing that in a proper learning setup, Strongly Adaptive algorithms can achieve the near…

We consider the online sparse linear regression problem, which is the problem of sequentially making predictions observing only a limited number of features in each round, to minimize regret with respect to the best sparse linear regressor,…

We study the problem of adaptive control of the stochastic linear quadratic regulator (LQR) with constraints that must be satisfied at every time step. Prior work on the multidimensional problem has shown $\tilde{O}(T^{2/3})$ regret and…

We study an online forecasting setting in which, over $T$ rounds, $N$ strategic experts each report a forecast to a mechanism, the mechanism selects one forecast, and then the outcome is revealed. In any given round, each expert has a…

We investigate the problem of cumulative regret minimization for individual sequence prediction with respect to the best expert in a finite family of size K under limited access to information. We assume that in each round, the learner can…

Recently, Daskalakis, Fishelson, and Golowich (DFG) (NeurIPS`21) showed that if all agents in a multi-player general-sum normal-form game employ Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Update (OMWU), the external regret of every player is…

A set of probabilistic forecasts is calibrated if each prediction of the forecaster closely approximates the empirical distribution of outcomes on the subset of timesteps where that prediction was made. We study the fundamental problem of…

Recent breakthrough results by Dagan, Daskalakis, Fishelson and Golowich [2023] and Peng and Rubinstein [2023] established an efficient algorithm attaining at most $\epsilon$ swap regret over extensive-form strategy spaces of dimension $N$…

Quantile (and, more generally, KL) regret bounds, such as those achieved by NormalHedge (Chaudhuri, Freund, and Hsu 2009) and its variants, relax the goal of competing against the best individual expert to only competing against a majority…

Motivated by alternating learning dynamics in two-player games, a recent work by Cevher et al.(2024) shows that $o(\sqrt{T})$ alternating regret is possible for any $T$-round adversarial Online Linear Optimization (OLO) problem, and left as…