相关论文: Sequential Methods for Error Correction of Probabi…

The importance of accurately quantifying forecast uncertainty has motivated much recent research on probabilistic forecasting. In particular, a variety of deep learning approaches has been proposed, with forecast distributions obtained as…

Advancements in numerical weather prediction models have accelerated, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of physical phenomena pertaining to the dynamics of weather and related computing resources. Despite these advancements,…

Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources is essential for grid stability and price prediction. Regional power supply forecasts are usually indirect through a bottom-up approach of plant-level forecasts, incorporate…

Over the past decade, wind energy has gained more attention in the world. However, owing to its indirectness and volatility properties, wind power penetration has increased the difficulty and complexity in dispatching and planning of…

Wind speed forecasting has received a lot of attention in the recent past from researchers due to its enormous benefits in the generation of wind power and distribution. The biggest challenge still remains to be accurate prediction of wind…

Wind energy resource assessment typically requires numerical models, but such models are too computationally intensive to consider multi-year timescales. Increasingly, unsupervised machine learning techniques are used to identify a small…

Linearly constrained multiple time series may be encountered in many practical contexts, such as the National Accounts (e.g., GDP disaggregated by Income, Expenditure and Output), and multilevel frameworks where the variables are organized…

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…

Machine and statistical learning algorithms can be reliably automated and applied at scale. Therefore, they can constitute a considerable asset for designing practical forecasting systems, such as those related to urban water demand.…

Modern weather forecasts are commonly issued as consistent multi-day forecast trajectories with a time resolution of 1-3 hours. Prior to issuing, statistical post-processing is routinely used to correct systematic errors and…

Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…

The high penetration of volatile renewable energy sources such as solar make methods for coping with the uncertainty associated with them of paramount importance. Probabilistic forecasts are an example of these methods, as they assist…

Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation aims to ensure consistency across forecasts made at different temporal and cross-sectional levels. We explore the relationships between sequential, iterative, and optimal combination approaches, and…

Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having…

We propose a neural network approach to produce probabilistic weather forecasts from a deterministic numerical weather prediction. Our approach is applied to operational surface temperature outputs from the Global Deterministic Prediction…

The share of wind energy in total installed power capacity has grown rapidly in recent years around the world. Producing accurate and reliable forecasts of wind power production, together with a quantification of the uncertainty, is…

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

In this work, we propose an ensemble forecasting approach based on randomized neural networks. Improved randomized learning streamlines the fitting abilities of individual learners by generating network parameters in accordance with the…

Time series forecasting is a challenging problem particularly when a time series expresses multiple seasonality, nonlinear trend and varying variance. In this work, to forecast complex time series, we propose ensemble learning which is…

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather…