相关论文: Sequential Methods for Error Correction of Probabi…
This study evaluates the performance of cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models for very short- and short-term wind power forecasting. Preliminary results for a German data set comprising six wind power production time series…
Wind power generation exhibits a strong temporal variability, which is crucial for system integration in highly renewable power systems. Different methods exist to simulate wind power generation but they often cannot represent the crucial…
Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…
We present a regime-switching vector-autoregressive method for very-short-term wind speed forecasting at multiple locations with regimes based on large-scale meteorological phenomena. Statistical methods short-term wind forecasting…
The accurate wind speed series forecast is very pivotal to security of grid dispatching and the application of wind power. Nevertheless, on account of their nonlinear and non-stationary nature, their short-term forecast is extremely…
Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…
Weather forecasting is usually solved through numerical weather prediction (NWP), which can sometimes lead to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate setting of the initial states. In this paper, we design a data-driven method…
This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether…
Ensemble weather forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models typically show systematic errors and require post-processing to obtain reliable forecasts. Accurately modeling multivariate dependencies is crucial in…
Monitoring changes inside a reservoir in real time is crucial for the success of CO2 injection and long-term storage. Machine learning (ML) is well-suited for real-time CO2 monitoring because of its computational efficiency. However, most…
Large collections of time series data are often organized into hierarchies with different levels of aggregation; examples include product and geographical groupings. Probabilistic coherent forecasting is tasked to produce forecasts…
In this paper, a model predictive control scheme for wind farms is presented. Our approach considers wake dynamics including their influence on local wind conditions and allows to track a given power reference. In detail, a Gaussian wake…
Accurate forecasting is important for cost-effective and efficient monitoring and control of the renewable energy based power generation. Wind based power is one of the most difficult energy to predict accurately, due to the widely varying…
As an important clean and renewable kind of energy, wind power plays an important role in coping with energy crisis and environmental pollution. However, the volatility and intermittency of wind speed restrict the development of wind power.…
The quantification of uncertainty in prediction models is crucial for reliable decision-making, yet remains a significant challenge. Interval time series forecasting offers a principled solution to this problem by providing prediction…
In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding, monitoring,…
There is recent interest in using model hubs, a collection of pre-trained models, in computer vision tasks. To utilize the model hub, we first select a source model and then adapt the model for the target to compensate for differences.…
Predictions in the form of probability distributions are crucial for effective decision-making. Quantile regression enables such predictions within spatial prediction settings that aim to create improved precipitation datasets by merging…
In this study, we delve into the realm of meta-learning to combine point base forecasts for probabilistic short-term electricity demand forecasting. Our approach encompasses the utilization of quantile linear regression, quantile regression…
Realtime model learning proves challenging for complex dynamical systems, such as drones flying in variable wind conditions. Machine learning technique such as deep neural networks have high representation power but is often too slow to…