相关论文: Sequential Methods for Error Correction of Probabi…

Forecasting windmill time series is often the basis of other processes such as anomaly detection, health monitoring, or maintenance scheduling. The amount of data generated on windmill farms makes online learning the most viable strategy to…

Wind turbines located in wind farms are operated to maximize only their own power production. Individual operation results in wake losses that reduce farm energy. In this study, we operate a wind turbine array collectively to maximize total…

Statistical methods such as the Box-Jenkins method for time-series forecasting have been prominent since their development in 1970. Many researchers rely on such models as they can be efficiently estimated and also provide interpretability.…

Due to the uncertainty of distributed wind generations (DWGs), a better understanding of the probability distributions (PD) of their wind power forecast errors (WPFEs) can help market participants (MPs) who own DWGs perform better during…

Accurately predicting the wind power output of a wind farm across various time scales utilizing Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) is a critical issue in wind power trading and utilization. The WPF problem remains unresolved due to numerous…

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…

The output of renewable energy fluctuates significantly depending on weather conditions. We develop a unit commitment model to analyze requirements of the forecast output and its error for renewable energies. Our model obtains the time…

We consider the problem of power demand forecasting in residential micro-grids. Several approaches using ARMA models, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks that perform one-step ahead predictions have been proposed in the…

Quantile Regression (QR) provides a way to approximate a single conditional quantile. To have a more informative description of the conditional distribution, QR can be merged with deep learning techniques to simultaneously estimate multiple…

The growing integration of power electronic-based technologies has increased the necessity of power quality (PQ) monitoring in transmission systems. Although large datasets are collected by operators, their use is typically limited to…

Neural network (NN) ensembles can reduce large prediction variance of NN and improve prediction accuracy. For highly nonlinear problems with insufficient data set, the prediction accuracy of NN models becomes unstable, resulting in a…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

Neural weather models have shown immense potential as inexpensive and accurate alternatives to physics-based models. However, most models trained to perform weather forecasting do not quantify the uncertainty associated with their…

Machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) achieve high accuracy in wind power forecasting, but they are usually regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability. To address this issue, the paper proposes a glass-box approach that…

We introduce a novel weather-adaptive approach for multi-step forecasting of multi-scale SOP changes in aerial fiber links. By harnessing the discrete wavelet transform and incorporating weather data, our approach improves forecasting…

Model predictive control (MPC) is an optimal control method that predicts the future states of the system being controlled and estimates the optimal control inputs that drive the predicted states to the required reference. The computations…

While neural networks are achieving high predictive accuracy in multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting, understanding the underlying mechanisms that lead to feature-conditioned outputs remains a significant challenge for forecasters. In…

An ensemble post-processing method is developed for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines conditional generative adversarial…

Ensemble forecast post-processing is a necessary step in producing accurate probabilistic forecasts. Conventional post-processing methods operate by estimating the parameters of a parametric distribution, frequently on a per-location or…

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation…